399
FXUS63 KAPX 120644
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
144 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A FEW STUBBORN FLURRIES COULD, IN THEORY, LINGER EARLY
THIS MORNING. NONE OF THAT CHANGES THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY, LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE. THUS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY.
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON FRIDAY, MARKING THE START OF A MILD
STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MI. THAT BEING SAID, QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC WILL EITHER CLIP, OR MOVE JUST TO
THE EAST OF, NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRETTY LOW
POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, BUT QUICK LOOK AT THE ENS PROBS
(GEFS, EPS, GEPS) FOR > 0.01" OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL BUT SOMETHING TO FINE TUNE MOVING
FORWARD.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND/OR POSSIBLY DISPLACED A LITTLE TOO
FAR NORTH FOR ANY MODEST PRECIP. MORE ROBUST ENERGY LOOKS TO
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
IN FACT, CURRENT ENS GUIDANCE HAS A LOW POTENTIAL (~10-40%) FOR
0.5" OF LIQUID OR MORE DURING THIS TIME.
DESPITE A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW, THE OVERALL THEME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT, LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, AND
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THUS, MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
RIVER FLOOD CONCERNS DUE TO ICE JAMS ON THE TABLE TO SOME
DEGREE, ESPECIALLY IF HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S WITH ICE
JAMS/RELEASES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, IF HEALTHY RAIN FALLS ON
TOP OF A RIPE SNOW PACK, RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
QUICK GLANCE AT THE HEFS 10 DAY RIVER LEVEL PROBS DOES SHOW AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR RISES ACROSS AREA RIVERS (PROB DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON SNOW MELT). ANYHOW, JUST SOMETHING TO
MONITOR GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS TO SLIP INTO TVC AROUND 6Z, COULD BE IFR
VISBYS AT TIMES TILL IT EXITS. OTHERWISE, SHSN SHOULD LARGELY SHIFT
BACK TOWARD TVC/MBL INTO DAYBREAK (COULD HANG ON MORE THAN EXPECTED
AT APN, THOUGH). STILL NON-ZERO CHANCE -FZDZ COULD MIX IN, BUT THINK
SN WILL PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCT MVFR/VFR CIGS THRU MUCH OF
THURSDAY...BKN MVFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 15-21Z WITH LIGHT SN/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE...WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS AFTER 0Z. NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING
FLURRIES BACK JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD, ESP FOR CIU. NW WINDS TURN
MORE NNW THRU DAYBREAK AND REMAIN 5-10KTS OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VRB TO W/SW TOWARD 21-0Z AND BEYOND. WATCHING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER 0Z FRI.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...FEF
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