479
FXUS63 KAPX 130829
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
329 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD.
- PERHAPS ACTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK?
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
CORE OF THE COLDER UPPER TROF HAS PUSHED EAST INTO QUEBEC AND
THE MARITIME PROVINCES. MILDER AIR LURKS JUST TO OUR WEST, AND
IT WILL MAKE SOME INROADS INTO OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY BY THE TAIL
END OF THE WEEKEND. BUT FOR TODAY, A DIGGING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DROPS TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY, WHICH WILL STALL OUT THIS WARMUP FOR
A BIT. IT ALSO BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY.
SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN RECENT
GUIDANCE. THOUGH SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THERE ARE SOME MODELS (OPERATIONAL NAM IN PARTICULAR) THAT
ARE RELATIVELY WET IN THE EASTERN UP THIS MORNING. "RELATIVELY
WET" STILL MEANS LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. THE HRRR/RAP13 BOTH
HAVE LESS PRECIP, THOUGH HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WETTER. AM
KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, WITH JUST A DUSTING OF
SNOW. HAVE EXTENDED/EXPANDED THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW, DOWN TO
ABOUT M-68 IN THE TIP OF THE MITT. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO
BRING MORE MID-CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH, AND FOR SOMEWHAT LONGER
TODAY. THAT WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK TODAY, EVERYWHERE BUT SW
SECTIONS. HIGHS WERE LOWERED A BIT CENTRAL AND N/E, BUT WERE
BOOSTED IN THE SW, WITH MBL NOW PROGGED TO 40F.
WITH A BIT OF SNOWMELT IN SOME AREAS TODAY, AND THEN LIGHT
WINDS RETURNING TONIGHT, PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POINTING TOWARD SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. (MORE
STRATUS THEN FOG.) DO EXPECT SOMETHING OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING, BEFORE SOME
IMPROVEMENTS SAT AFTERNOON. STRATUS/FOG IS MORE LIKELY IN
EASTERN UPPER MI AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: SHORTWAVE TRAIN WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ACTIVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND
FAR NORTHERN LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
IN UPPER MI, AND SOME SPORADIC PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL, MAINLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE THOUGH, THE GRADUAL INFUSION OF
850MB TEMPS GREATER THAN 0C WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB. THE MILDEST
READINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S IN
NORTHERN LOWER MI AT LEAST (30 IN THE UP). HOW LONG CAN THAT
LAST?
MODEL TRENDS INTO LATER NEXT WEEK REMAIN NEBULOUS. ALL SORTS OF
ENERGY WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST STATES, AND
EVENTUALLY SOME OF THAT WILL EMERGE EAST OF ROCKIES AND PRODUCE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. THERE'S A POTENTIALLY HIGHLY-FRONTOGENETIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, WITH MUCH WARMER AIR IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US, AND A STILL COLD/ICY CANADA. BUT MODELS ARE
UP TO 48 HOURS OUT OF PHASE AS TO WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE
IMPACTS THE REGION. AND THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHARP
COOLDOWN BEHIND THAT LEAD SYSTEM...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE IS MORE
TEMPERED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR TODAY, EXCEPT MVFR AT CIU BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MI TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CIGS AT CIU (MVFR) AND
PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR PLN TO SEE
SOME -SHSN IN THE AREA TOO. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR TODAY.
HOWEVER, SOME CLOUDS/STRATUS COULD TRY TO FORM ON FRIDAY NIGHT;
DO HAVE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT PLN/APN/TVC.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, WITH WSW WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page