954
FXUS63 KAPX 131057
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
557 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD.
- PERHAPS ACTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK?
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
CORE OF THE COLDER UPPER TROF HAS PUSHED EAST INTO QUEBEC AND
THE MARITIME PROVINCES. MILDER AIR LURKS JUST TO OUR WEST, AND
IT WILL MAKE SOME INROADS INTO OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY BY THE TAIL
END OF THE WEEKEND. BUT FOR TODAY, A DIGGING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DROPS TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY, WHICH WILL STALL OUT THIS WARMUP FOR
A BIT. IT ALSO BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY.
SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN RECENT
GUIDANCE. THOUGH SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THERE ARE SOME MODELS (OPERATIONAL NAM IN PARTICULAR) THAT
ARE RELATIVELY WET IN THE EASTERN UP THIS MORNING. "RELATIVELY
WET" STILL MEANS LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. THE HRRR/RAP13 BOTH
HAVE LESS PRECIP, THOUGH HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WETTER. AM
KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, WITH JUST A DUSTING OF
SNOW. HAVE EXTENDED/EXPANDED THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW, DOWN TO
ABOUT M-68 IN THE TIP OF THE MITT. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO
BRING MORE MID-CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH, AND FOR SOMEWHAT LONGER
TODAY. THAT WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK TODAY, EVERYWHERE BUT SW
SECTIONS. HIGHS WERE LOWERED A BIT CENTRAL AND N/E, BUT WERE
BOOSTED IN THE SW, WITH MBL NOW PROGGED TO 40F.
WITH A BIT OF SNOWMELT IN SOME AREAS TODAY, AND THEN LIGHT
WINDS RETURNING TONIGHT, PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POINTING TOWARD SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. (MORE
STRATUS THEN FOG.) DO EXPECT SOMETHING OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING, BEFORE SOME
IMPROVEMENTS SAT AFTERNOON. STRATUS/FOG IS MORE LIKELY IN
EASTERN UPPER MI AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: SHORTWAVE TRAIN WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ACTIVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND
FAR NORTHERN LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
IN UPPER MI, AND SOME SPORADIC PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL, MAINLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE THOUGH, THE GRADUAL INFUSION OF
850MB TEMPS GREATER THAN 0C WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB. THE MILDEST
READINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S IN
NORTHERN LOWER MI AT LEAST (30 IN THE UP). HOW LONG CAN THAT
LAST?
MODEL TRENDS INTO LATER NEXT WEEK REMAIN NEBULOUS. ALL SORTS OF
ENERGY WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST STATES, AND
EVENTUALLY SOME OF THAT WILL EMERGE EAST OF ROCKIES AND PRODUCE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. THERE'S A POTENTIALLY HIGHLY-FRONTOGENETIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, WITH MUCH WARMER AIR IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US, AND A STILL COLD/ICY CANADA. BUT MODELS ARE
UP TO 48 HOURS OUT OF PHASE AS TO WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE
IMPACTS THE REGION. AND THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHARP
COOLDOWN BEHIND THAT LEAD SYSTEM...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE IS MORE
TEMPERED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
MOSTLY VFR TODAY ACROSS MOST TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CIU WHERE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SNOW
CHANCES COULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS PLN AS WELL, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR/ IFR LIKE CIU.
MOSTLY VFR ACROSS OTHER SITES UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN LOWER
CLOUDS/STRATUS COULD TRY TO FORM, BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO
MVFR ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...NSC
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