195
FXUS63 KAPX 140453
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1153 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN A SLOW MELTING OF SNOW THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT OF SOME RATHER BITTER COLD CONDITIONS
(WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN), MUCH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES PUNCHING UP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN RETREATING NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
KICKING OFF A BAND OF NOW MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO A MATURING SPLIT
FLOW REGIME EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOCKING ANY COLD
AIR WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO NORTHERN CANADA. RESULT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING
AN EARLY TASTE OF SPRING TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER PERHAPS TURNS A
BIT MORE INTERESTING AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ENERGY BEGINS TO ROTATE OUT OF DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGHING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
INITIAL FOCUS SOLELY CENTERED ON JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES BECOME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION THAN TURNS TO THAT
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE AND PERHAPS MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
DETAILS:
UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND THAT KICKED OFF TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. TOP-DOWN THERMAL ANALYSIS EASILY SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL UP INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S THIS WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY WHEN OVERHEAD AIRMASS REACHES
PEAK MODIFICATION AND A BIT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDS ENHANCED
MECHANICAL MIXING. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY, WITH SOME LOWER 50S
EASILY ATTAINABLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. PER THE USUAL, THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE
MIGHTY MAC WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER, BUT LIKELY STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS PUSHING 40 DEGREES. COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW FREEZING AND SUB-FREEZING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE SNOW MELT GRADUAL, PREVENTING ANY WIDESPREAD HYDRO
CONCERNS...EVEN IN AREAS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. WILL HOWEVER
NEED TO WATCH FOR ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS...PERHAPS DEVELOPING
ICE JAMS IN THOSE MORE RESTRICTIVE FLOW AREAS. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH MOST ORGANIZED FORCING AND MOISTURE
BIFURCATING THE REGION. PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
FAR NORTH MONDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES, BUT DEFINITELY NOTHING TOO IMPACTFUL EXPECTED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS
ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THEN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CENTERED TROUGHING.
QUESTIONS ABOUND, BOTH WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF
EJECTING ENERGY AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN
INTENSIFYING NORTHERN LAKES CENTERED BAROCLINIC AXIS/LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. HEALTHY PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME
INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY ANY PASSING WAVE, AT LEAST THEORETICALLY SUPPORTING SOME
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION GENERATION. SIMPLY MUCH TOO EARLY FOR ANY
REAL SPECIFICS, BUT COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE WITHIN THAT TIGHTENING
LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT DOES AT LEAST RAISE COME CONCERN FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. SIMPLE BEST COURSE
OF ACTION AT THIS TIME IS TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH,
FEATURING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WILL OCCUR OF COURSE AS BOTH STRENGTH OF
EJECTING ENERGY AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC AXIS
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A MIX
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES BUT APN,
WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY, TO VFR. ADDITIONAL LOWER CLOUDS/FOG COULD ENTER
THE PICTURE AGAIN TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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