445
FXUS63 KAPX 150352
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1052 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL RETURNS MIDWEEK WITH A MYRIAD OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: QUASI-ZONAL/WEAKLY RIDGED UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK/SUBTLE HEIGHT
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO TREK THROUGH THIS FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY -- EACH PROVIDING INCONSEQUENTIAL LOW-END PRECIP
CHANCES AMIDST CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
ATTENTION LARGELY SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
PLAINS, EVENTUALLY TREKKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN AND AN EVENTUAL
SOUTHERN TAP INTO THE GULF WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
FORECAST DETAILS: NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LOW-END LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AS SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS PASS
OVERHEAD. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE SHOULD MAINLY
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN, PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOWFLAKES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN U.P., BUT LARGELY OF LITTLE
IMPACT. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 30S AND LOW 40S AREA-WIDE.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS WAS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER,
BUT LOW IN SPECIFICS GIVEN CONTINUED GUIDANCE SPREAD. LATEST ENS
TRENDS FAVOR THE TIGHTEST BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP PRETTY MUCH
RIGHT ATOP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN (AND
EVEN SOME THUNDER) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO ONE THIRD OF LOWER
MI. INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NORTHERN LOWER MI, AND PRIMARILY
SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. THAT SAID, IT'S WORTH REPEATING THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SPECIFIC SOLUTION PANNING OUT IS INCREDIBLY LOW,
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE SWATH OF POTENTIAL MIXED
PRECIPITATION SUBJECT TO CHANGE. LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE ONE
TO FOCUS ON FOR A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER AFTER THE CURRENT
REPRIEVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
BEYOND THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM, LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUPPORT CONTINUED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ROLL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
OBVIOUSLY RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY, BUT ANOTHER TIME FRAME TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOCALLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
FOG/STRATUS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO REFORM THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO MAKE INROADS
INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES SUNDAY, WITH CIU BEING IFR PRETTY
MUCH ALL DAY, AND PLN BECOMING SO IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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