803
FXUS63 KAPX 062006
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG AND TIMES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
- HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING RISKS ALONG AREA
RIVERS AND IN LOW SPOTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY, THEN MIXED PRECIP CHANCES
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
CURRENT A WARM FRONT (SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MI BORDER, AND IS CONTINUING FEED WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD INTO MI. LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN MI. A
NEGATIVE PHASE PNA UPPER PATTERN IS RESULTING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS, WINDS OVER THE SOUTH ARE CONVERGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER (AR/OK) AND FUNNELING AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MI REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
40S, AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HERE (EVEN WARM A FEW DEGREES
IN SOME SPOTS) AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BESIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT, THE LARGER FORCING MECHANISMS AND BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT (NEAR MIDNIGHT)
AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TIMES OF EMBEDDED THUNDER
STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED.
AS THE UPPER JET STRENGTHENS, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MI. WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE
IN PLACE, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (100 TO 400 J/KG), AND
STRONG SHEAR, A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MI
IN A QUASI- LINEAR FASHION. A FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS COULD
EXIST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
ALONG AREA RIVERS. THE SECONDARY THREATS (LESS LIKELY) ARE
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. SMALL HAIL WILL LIKELY BE SEEN WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS (SOME DRIER AIR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DOES EXIST IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE ON SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS).
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALSO HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH THE SURFACE,
PUNCHING THROUGH A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION THAT WILL LIKELY STILL
BE PRESENT AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON AN EXISTING SNOW PACK DOES LEAD TO CONCERNS
FOR FLOODING, AND THE SHERMAN FORECAST POINT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER
IS HIGHLIGHTING IT WILL RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER SATURDAY.
AROUND 5 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH STILL RESIDES AROUND NW LOWER,
WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL. WITH A
DECREASE IN EXPECTED ACTIVITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, QPF
AMOUNTS HAVE REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DECREASED BY A COUPLE TENTHS
IN SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY ALWAYS EXISTS WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP THO,
AND SPOTS LONGER DURATION MODERATE RAINFALL CAN MATERIALIZE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SOME NUANCE/MINOR FLOODING
IN LOW LYING SPOTS AND AREA RIVERS. VERY LOW CHANCES FOR THIS TO
BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS - LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO +1.00"
NW LOWER: 0.5" TO 1.00"
NE LOWER: 0.25" TO 0.5"
EASTERN UPPER: 0.50 TO 0.75"
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BREIFLY SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WEAK SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A BRIEF POST-FRONTAL
COOL DOWN, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS
OVER CAN WILL COLLIDE WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHAT THE PRECIP WILL LOOK LIKE, HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SIGNAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN TIMES OF MIXED
PRECIP TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES, SOME SPOTS
SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN..
LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
GRUNGY, SHOWERY, CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER TONIGHT. FIRST ROUND OF -RA/-SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 07 AND 12Z. CIGS LARGELY BETWEEN 002-010 THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH VSBYS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 SM, LOCALLY
LOWER AT TIMES WITHIN DENSER FG. IN ADDITION, LOWER LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE WITH WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JLD
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