440
FXUS63 KAPX 070826
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
326 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY. WATCHING FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING TODAY.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BUILDS THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUILD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS CANADA'S
SOUTHERN PROVINCES, WITH ITS AXIS EXPANDING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS,
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS
IT SWEEPS EASTWARD. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT
LINGERING LOW-LYING MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS,
INCLUDING A POTENTIAL STORM OR TWO BEFORE SUBSIDENCE FINALLY DRIES
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST COAST
THIS SUNDAY, LEAVING BEHIND A ZONAL FLOW SETUP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT COLD CP AIR REMAINING LOCKED
TO THE NORTH THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BUILDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID-MARCH. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD STAY'S ACTIVE AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS WAVES OF
ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION, DELIVERING ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY WARM INFLUENCES WILL
SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
-LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY. WATCHING FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING TODAY... CURRENT RADAR DISPLAYS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS
TIED TO THE COLD TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST MOISTURE ALREADY
DEPARTING THE REGION AFTER 12Z. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL,
WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL SATURATION DELIVERING ONLY A TRACE OR SO
FOR MOST AREAS AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH. THE ONLY
REMAINING CONCERN IN TERMS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS ONGOING LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVED RAINFALL ON TOP OF RAPIDLY
MELTING SNOW COMBINED WITH POOR INFILTRATION RATES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED PONDING/FLOODING TODAY. SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES HAVE ALREADY
OBSERVED AN UPWARD TREND IN STREAM HEIGHTS THIS MORNING. THE RFC HAS
FORECASTED EVEN A FEW POINTS TO REACH ACTION STAGE, INCLUDING THE
MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN POTENTIALLY REACHING IT'S MINOR FLOODING
STAGE TONIGHT.
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BUILDS THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA. COLD AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO BUILD WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS SUNDAY WHILE
EASTERN UPPER REMAINS IN THE MID 40S. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PUSHES HIGHS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA TO
REACH THE 70S AIDED BY DOWN SLOPING EFFECTS.
-MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUILD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... A MIDLEVEL
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO A WAVE AND TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK MOISTURE
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE SEAWAY AREA.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF REMAIN BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.50" FOR THE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AREA. AS THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD, COLD
CANADIAN AIR WILL COLLIDE WITH A WARMER PACIFIC SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE.
AS A RESULT, GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO FAVOR CHANCES OF RAIN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW, WITH A WINDOW
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN. IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST ICING POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS OVERALL,
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SETUP AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/VSBYS INTO THE MORNING AS WELL. VLIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS MOST COMMON INTO SAT MORNING, WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL IN THE EVENING.
ONGOING SE TO S WINDS BECOME SW TO W AND GUSTY SATURDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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