109
FXUS63 KAPX 071751
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1251 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR
THE TIP OF THE MITT EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
- SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
- NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHERN MI MIDWEEK, BRINING
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP, ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WITH THIS COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING IN. THE COLDER TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF AS
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING UNDER A SURFACE CYCLONE
PASSAGE TO THE NORTH (TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CAN). LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UPPER AND DOWN INTO THE TIP OF THE
MITT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MOST PRECIP BECOMING RAIN LATER
IN THE MORNING. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PAIRED WITH THIS SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL AID IN SQUEEZING OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE THERE IS,
HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE.
DUE TO THIS, PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST OF IT
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE
FORCING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW MORNING,
BECOMING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AROUND MIDDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS.
ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN, KEEPING
GRADIENTS TIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AS A SECOND
ROUND OF GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IS SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER AND DOWN TO
THE TIP OF THE MITT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SKIES CLEAR
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S
FOR NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S DUE TO A COLDER NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN CAN WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CREEP OVER THE
U.P. LATER ON MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST OVER ONTARIO CAN TUESDAY, ALLOWING A WEAK SIDE/BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE SEEN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL LOWER MI. MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALFOT BRINGS IN MOISTURE ON TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMES OF A WINTRY MIX LATER TUESDAY.
HOW THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE IN
GUIDANCE. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK A SURFACE CYCLONE
CENTERED IN THE PLAINS THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING/SPEED OF
THIS FEATURE AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW DIFFERS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO SUB 1000MB AND KEEPS
THE FEATURE PROGRESSIVE. THIS AMPLIFIES THE FLOW AND SURGES WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR FARTHER NORTH... DEPICTING AN ACCUMULATING ICE
SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS THE 0C 850MB LINE FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW, AND THUS THE FEATURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE STACKED
TO FAVOR A RAIN/SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL SLEET SCENARIO. GFS/ECMWF AI
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEET SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO
SCENARIO'S, WHERE THE CONTROLS OF EACH ARE NOT ALIGNED WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. ALTHOUGH THIS SHOWCASES A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
FORECAST, WE CAN DRAW SOME CONCLUSIONS AT THIS TIME. SOMEWHERE OVER
NORTHERN MI, MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL FALL LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TYPE, AMOUNTS, AND FURTHER REFINING OF
LOCATIONS STILL NEED TO BE FLUSHED OUT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER REACHES SE MI (SOMETIME WEDNESDAY) ALL
PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. CURRENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR
KEEPING TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT OR BELOW 3 TO 5 INCHES, HOWEVER THIS
GREATLY DEPENDS ON THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY.
EASTERN UPPER THEORETICALLY HAS A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING MOST THE
PRECIP FALL AS SNOW, AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE HERE AS HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STARTS TO CAPTURE THIS EVENT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE UNSETTLED PATTER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO NORTHERN MI NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS TURN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS MIXING
WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT CIU AND NORTHWEST LOWER MI
TERMINALS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. LARGELY
LIFR/IFR CONDTIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY VERY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...MJG
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