733
FXUS63 KAPX 081740
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT EARLY TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35+ MPH TODAY AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
- NEXT SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT ALL OF NORTHERN MI MIDWEEK, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION, ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STAY TUNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS FILTERED INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING TO
DIP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE HANGING
ON ACROSS NORTHER LOWER. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS, MAKING FOR TRAVEL
VERY EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNIGN SLICK IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER,
THIS COOLER START WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. A PASSING UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY SQUEEZE OUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE TAPERING G OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED, SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SCATTERED IN NATURE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
AFORMENTIONED LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH, LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH (SOME AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE MI AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS MAY REACH UP TO 40 MPH) WILL BE COMMON BY LATE MORNING
INTO MIDDAY. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
EASING A BIT LATER IN THE DAY, THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HE GRADIENT REMAINS
SQUEEZED. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ON THE HEELS OF THE
AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT
INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH
ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS TO GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BRUSH EASTERN
UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT MOST
OTHER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF M-72 SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BIGGER
STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING AND SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY, HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 50S, AS A COLDER NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS LINGERING OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE REGION. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP, WHICH MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN OF CENTRAL LOWER MI. INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THIS BOUNDARY, LIKELY LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO MID NEXT
WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL
IDEA REMAINS THAT A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK TOWARD SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM AND HOW FAR NORTH ARMER AIR PUSHES AHEAD OF IT.
SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A STRONGER LOW WITH WARMER AIR REACHING
FARTHER NORTH, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH
COLDER AIR HOLDING ON LONGER FAVORING MORE OF A RAIN/ SNOW MIX
WITH PERIODS OF SLEET. AT THIS POINT A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, COLDER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO SNOW. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE TRENDS GENERALLY SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW LONG MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS EARLIER IN THE EVENT. EASTERN UPPER LOOKS
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TRACK TRENDS.
BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE BROADER
PATTERN REMAINING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH GUIDANCE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHING TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.. DETAILS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM REMAIN FUZZY A THIS RANGE, BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AD CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER
HEADING INTO MID MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
(OUTSIDE OF STUBBORN KCIU WHICH COULD REMAIN MVFR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD EARLY IN THIS CYCLE). WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ~40-45KTS OF LLWS AT TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY
00Z TO 14Z MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, QUICK MOVING BATCH OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KCIU TONIGHT, PERHAPS BRIEFLY FOR KPLN AS
WELL. BREEZY CONDITIONS STICK AROUND AT TIMES TONIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...JLD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page