430
FXUS63 KAPX 092335
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
735 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BACK TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY SPRING REALITY...WITH A MESSY MIX
OF WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER, WITH POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER
LATER THIS WEEK AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
A WARM ONE OUT THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CURRENT READINGS IN
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, AND MOSTLY IN THE
40S NORTH OF THE MIGHTY MAC. EXCEPTIONALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS,
FILTERED SUNSHINE, AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH RESULTED IN SUCH WARM READINGS...WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS MAKING A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY'S DATE.
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HOWEVER ARE IN THE OFFING, AS CURRENT
CENTRAL NOAM ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE...WITH LEAD
AMPLIFICATION DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET CORE ROTATING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL
ONLY DEEPEN WITH TIME, CUTTING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW STILL COLD CANADIAN AIR TO "BLEED" SOUTH INTO MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES, AT LEAST THEORETICALLY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON POTENTIAL FOR ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SECONDARY FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT OUR AREA LATER THIS
WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
DETAILS:
NOT A WHOLE LOT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT AND NON-IMPACTFUL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND TODAY'S DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
COULD STILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION ONLY
INCREASES WITH TIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALL-THE-WHILE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THAT EARLIER
MENTIONED DEEPENING SHORTWAVE. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
COOL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT, WARM NOSE ALOFT (SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING) WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO YIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE SLEET
FOOTPRINT EXPANDING SOUTH AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT COOLS AND THE BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE LAYER INCREASES IN HEIGHT. WARM AIR ALOFT FURTHER
ERODES ON WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING SNOW EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL NOT EXIST OR BE OF MINIMAL DEPTH ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, KEEPING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS "EVENT." NOW, WITH THAT SAID, DPROG/DT OF
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CORRECTION SOUTH WITH BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FORCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...PLACING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
IN ADDITION, PATTERN RECOGNITION OF WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNMENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WELL
ORGANIZED AND INTENSE SOUTHERN LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT STRONGLY SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DISRUPTION TO
THE NORTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LASTLY, BEST DEFORMATION AND
TROWAL DYNAMICS DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE RESPONSE ARE EAST OF OUR AREA. AS OF NOW, THIS
LOOKS LARGELY AN ADVISORY TYPE LEVEL OF EVENT, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, AND A FEW
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (MIXED WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN). AS FOR ICE AMOUNTS, GIVEN RUNOFF (MUCH
LESS THAN A ONE TO ONE LIQUID TO ICE RATIO) AND THAT SOUTH
DISPLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, THINKING LARGELY A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. OF COURSE, THIS IS STILL A FEW PERIODS AWAY, AND SUBJECT
TO MANY CHANGES AS THERMAL FIELDS ARE BETTER ANALYZED AND AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE IN FOCUS. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, WILL AGAIN REFRAIN FROM ANY SPECIFIC HEADLINES,
UTILIZING OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER GRAPHICS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT FAST MOVING
WAVE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THERMAL FIELDS LOOK
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER ON ITS ARRIVAL, SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW. COULD
SEE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST WITH THIS WAVE THAN JUST 24
HOURS AGO. SIMPLY WILL NEED TO SEE WHERE TRENDS CONTINUE TO TAKE US.
NO REST FOR THE WEARY...WITH STRONG SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND INTENSE UPPER JET CORE TO FORCE RAPID
AMPLIFICATION TO THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...DRUMMING UP QUITE THE SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE PROCESS.
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS, WITH AT LEAST
SOME EVIDENCE THIS RAPID AMPLIFICATION WILL DRIVE RATHER VIGOROUS
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT NEAR
OR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A POST-SYSTEM LAKE RESPONSE HEADING INTO
MONDAY IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AGAIN, PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT ALL THOSE DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MORE THAN EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING,
FALLING OUT OF A MID CLOUD DECK. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NE-ERLY, LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECTED MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT APN AND MBL, LOW-END VFR
ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING HEADING INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
LIGHT N TO NE WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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