980
FXUS63 KAPX 101748
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MESSY MIX OF WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW... SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
- COOLER, WITH POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER
LATER THIS WEEK AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TODAY AS RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST TO DEVELOP, SLOWLY USHERING
IN COOLER AIR. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL SHOW SOME
VARIABILITY DEPENDING ON LOCATION. HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S, WHILE DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY COULD STILL BREIFLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 50S.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS NORTH OF M- 32 WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/ SNOW SHOWERS FORECASTED, ALTHOUGH MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY UNTIL TONIGHT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKS
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES FILTERING IN NEAR THE
SURFACE ON STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME,
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN A SEVERAL DEGREE ABOVE
FREEZING WARM LAYER OVERHEAD FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. THIS EVOLVING THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESSY WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT,
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT, THE SLEET FOOTPRINT MAY EXPAND AS THE WARM
NOSE ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES AND THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER
GROWS IN DEPTH. MEANWHILE, EASTERN UPPER SHOULD SEE COLDER
PROFILES ESTABLISH QUICKER, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FALL
PRIMARILY AS SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENT. NORTHEAST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE... POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVED HIGHER ICE AMOUNTS.
THERE REMAIN A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD LIMIT OVERALL IMPACTS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THE AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER SOUTH, FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION,
EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT MAY DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER NORTH. BEST
DEFORMATION FORCING AND TROWAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEAR TO
DEVELOP EAST OF OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MATURES. CURRENT THINKING
SUPPORTS SNOW TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER, WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MIX WITH
SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN. ICE TOTALS FOR MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER OR AROUND A 0.10 OF AN INCH GIVEN THE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, THOUGH ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALPENA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY, COLDER
AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO TREND TOWARD MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEFORE TAPERING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A COOLER AND MORE TYPICAL
MID-MARCH AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY LOOKS COMPARATIVELY QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AS THE PATTERN BREIFLY RESETS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER, SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ON THIS SYSTEM, BUT
ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS APPROACHING WAVE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL JET MAY DRIVE RAPID
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW, POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANCE, PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLDER
AIR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW,
THE OVERALL MESSAGE CONTINUES TO FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO MID-
MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR TO START FOR MOST TERMINALS, DETERIORATING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR, TO EVENTUALLY IFR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS DECREASING TO 1-4SM AS WELL DUE TO -SN AND
ANY -FZRA/-PL. UNDER HEAVIER SN VSBYS COULD LOWER BELOW 1 SM AS
WELL AT KCIU. SNOW MAINLY FOR KCIU, MIX OF -PL/-FZRA/-SN AT
KPLN AND KAPN, -FZRA AT KTVC, AND MAINLY -RA AT KMBL. HEAVIEST
ICING EXPECTED AT KAPN. MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION MOVES IN
~01-04Z THROUGH 12Z, WITH A GENERAL LIGHTENING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH -DZ/-FZDZ WILL REMAIN.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-086>088-095>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020>036-041-042.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...JLD
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