625
FXUS63 KAPX 111106
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
706 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MESSY MIX OF WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOW... SEE THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
- COOLER, WITH POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER
LATER THIS WEEK AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LOW TO INCREASE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ROBBING SOME OF THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SO, ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN NEAR
THE SURFACE ON GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME,
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED A WARM NOSE
OVERHEAD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS EVOLVING THERMAL PROFILE HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESSY WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO
THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING, THOUGH THE
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS VARIED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHER RETURNS ON RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A RAIN/ SLEET MIX WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED. THIS HAS MADE ROAD CONDTIONS PRETTY
GREASY WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON BRANCHES NOTICED HERE AT THE OFFICE
WHILE WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING COMBINED WITH THESE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE/ POWER OUTAGES. AS COLDER
AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE HOURS, THE SLEET FOOTPRINT
MAY EXPAND AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES AND THE NEAR
SURFACE COLD LAYER INCREASES IN DEPTH.
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, COLDER PROFILES ESTABLISHED
MORE QUICKLY, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW.
NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AGAIN, COMBINED WITH ICING
BUILDING ON TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE POWER LINES ACROSS PORTION
OF NORTHERN LOWER, THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND
SOME TREE DAMAGE WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHER. THAT SAID,
THERE REMAIN A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT OVERALL IMPACTS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE ACTUALLY
MAKES IT UP HERE, FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION, AS MENTIONED BEFORE,
ORGANIZED CONVENTION OVERNIGHT HAS DISRUPTED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT THINKING STILL FAVORS AN ADDITIONAL 2-5
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. PARTS OF THE TIP OF THE
MITT LOOK TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES WITH SLEET MIXING IN
AT TIMES WITH ELSEWHERE GETTING AN INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATER
TODAY, COLDER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TOWARD MAINLY SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE MID-MARCH
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THURSDAY LOOKS COMPARATIVELY QUIET AS THE PATTER BREIFLY
RESETS, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY QUIETER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT STAY AWAY FOR LONG AS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR NOTABLY COLDER
COMPARED TO THE MESSY MIXED PRECIPITATION WE ARE CURRENTLY
DEALING WITH, SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED,
ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS LATE WEEK WAVE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES (PROBABILITIES SUGGEST PERHAPS
BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES FOR SOME AREAS?).
LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAKING SHAPE. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT
RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THIS SETUP
COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT IN TO
SUNDAY. WHILE SPECIFICS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE
AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATING SNOW INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR
BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION,
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY HELP SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THE OVERALL
MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
AT LEAST IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BRIDGE WITH LIFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS MANY INTERIOR AREAS.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN U.P./CIU
THROUGH TODAY AS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SEES CIGS LIFT TO MVFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT VARYING TIMES TODAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL ICING MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
STEADIEST SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST
WINDS TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ016>018-020>023-025>027-031>033-036-041-042-087-088-
095>099.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-
028>030-034-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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