172
FXUS63 KAPX 112015
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
FOR SPOTS OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
- STRONG WINTRY SYSTEM AHEAD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
/TODAY THRU THURSDAY/....
CURRENTLY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
AROUND THE AREA AS A WAVE OF LIGHT/EMBEDDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION
EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR OR SUB FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
SEEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO M-61. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN
REINFORCING THE COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN LOWER TODAY. THE 12Z KAPX
RAOB SHOWED A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ALOFT, WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE
DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. TIMES OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
IS ALSO BEING SEEN AROUND NORTHERN MI, ESPECIALLY OVER NW LOWER AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES OUT. INTIAL REPORTS
(ENCOMPASSING THE ICING LAST NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING'S SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION) YIELD A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS FOR GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY AND SOUTH AND WEST, AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO SAGINAW BAY.
OTHERWISE LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
LINE ICE ACCUMULATIONS, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO 0.4" OF LINE
ICE AROUND ALPENA, MONTMORENCY, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES.
A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SEEN OVER LAKE MI WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
MI THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE MAIN PRECIP MASS IS EXITING. A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO SLEET WILL BE SEEN AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE
IN, THEN MOSTLY SNOW WILL BE SEEN BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER SEEING THE LIGHT SNOW LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING FORCING OVER TIME WILL LEAD
TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS OVERALL. A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE COASTAL AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHER LOWER AND MOST OF
EASTERN UPPER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE TYPICAL SNOW
BELT AREAS OF NW LOWER. 850MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -13C WILL BE PRESENT,
AND COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF BAND OR TWO OF MORE MODERATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SNOW FROM THIS WILL REMAIN VERY
LOCALIZED, AND WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES. SO, FOR LOCALIZED SNOW BELT LOCATIONS UP
TO A TOTAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SEEN THURSDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
EASES UP AND WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST.
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/SW US...AND ACROSS THE SE US...WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A 140+KT UPPER JET IN THE FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING TRYING TO CATCH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. -20C AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH...AND +20C AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TO OUR SOUTH,
WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE IN BETWEEN...STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF GEORGIAN BAY DOWN TO NORTHEAST TX...LOOPING BACK
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE WARM, MOIST RETURN FLOW CLASHES
WITH INCOMING COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION HERE IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEFORMATION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH THINGS GENERALLY TRYING TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW ATTM. CLIPPER SYSTEM HANGS OMINOUSLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
ATTM.
LINGERING ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY EXIT THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGING TRYING
TO BUILD IN GOING INTO THURSDAY...AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM
SET TO PUNCH US IN THE FACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TIGHTLY
WOUND SYSTEM LIKELY TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY THE EUP, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO ONLY
COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE AS IT EXITS STAGE
RIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO RETAKE THE
AREA BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN EVEN MORE OMINOUS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY...LIKELY TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
QPF/SNOW (DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE ENDS UP) AND GUSTY WINDS TO HANG ON INTO THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. WINTER IS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
FORECAST DETAILS...
WINDS AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SETUP
FOR A PUNCHY LIL CLIPPER. NEGATIVE TILT TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A MORE WOUND-UP SURFACE LOW AND THUS, STRONGER
WINDS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD
SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS OVER LAND THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A 40-50KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THINK WE COULD STRUGGLE TO
TAP SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION...BUT THERMAL PROFILES AREN'T OVERLY STABLE IN THE
LOW-LEVELS (UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM), AND HAVE SOME SUSPICIONS IT
MAY BE A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX THINGS DOWN...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH, WHICH COULD ADD SOME ISALLOBARIC FUN TO THE
PARTY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED 15-20KTS (EVEN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE--MODERATE
CONFIDENCE--IN 25KTS AT TRAVERSE CITY), PARTICULARLY ON THE BACK OF
THE LOW FRIDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THOSE STRONGER GUSTS
MIXING DOWN AT TIMES. THIS BEING SAID, WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, AND CURRENT SIGNALS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
STRAITS REGION, THOUGH IT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE M-68 CORRIDOR
AND EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR/NORTH OF WHITEFISH POINT. COMBINED
WITH THE SNOW...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR WHITEOUT (NIGH ON BLIZZARD)
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH IMPACTS TO THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
LOOKING AT SOME GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. 700MB LOW TRACK LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EUP, WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE FAVORABLE SNOW AREA THERE...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE IS FURTHER NORTH -- SCRAPING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE YOOP
OR EVEN STAYING OFFSHORE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
MUCH LESSER TOTALS OVER LAND COMPARED TO CURRENT THINKING. BULK OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE MOST
INTENSE SNOWFALL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 8AM
TIMEFRAME (NATURALLY). WE ARE EXPECTING SOME DECENT MOISTURE (PWATS
ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CLIMO), AND THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR SOME WEAKER
STABILITY ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SUGGESTS WE'LL HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT BETTER QPF AND THUS, BETTER SNOWFALL (NOTING THE THERMAL
PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ALL FAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW (OR
POSSIBLY RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR MANISTEE OR AU GRES IF IT
WARMS ENOUGH)...NO FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY EXPECTED (YAY!)).
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED SNOW
RATIOS, BUT EVEN 12-18 TO 1 WITH POTENTIAL QPF OF 0.5-0.8 INCHES
SUGGESTS A GOOD SHOT AT 8-12 INCHES ACROSS THE YOOP IN
PARTICULAR; THINK WE WILL ONLY PAD THIS FURTHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS WE GET ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH OR ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO WETTER SNOW AND/OR LESSER SNOW TOTALS.
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM...SETUP CONTINUES TO STRONGLY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL US LATER SATURDAY,
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION JUNK DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF SPINS UP AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN US RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS IS ALSO WHEN SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE. SIGNALS FOR SOME ENERGY TO LIFT THROUGH
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A MORE NEGATIVE
TILT TO THE SYSTEM, SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RAMP UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. MULTIPLE CONCERNS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL START WITH WINDS. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-
25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PROB
GUIDANCE SHOWING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IDEA ATTM. LOW-LEVEL
JET OF AROUND 30-40KTS SEEMS LIKELY, AND DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSELY
THE SYSTEM WINDS UP ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN AREA
OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH SOME LOW END POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50MPH AT SOME POINT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
STRONG FORCING ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT
A GULF TAP)...SUGGESTS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME VERY PRODUCTIVE
QPF. POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CONCERNING FROM THE STANDPOINT OF SNOW RATIOS...PARTICULARLY IF THIS
FALLS WITHIN THE DGZ, OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW, PERHAPS DOUBLE-DIGIT TOTALS IN SOME AREA OVER THE
COURSE OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND AND A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT GOING INTO MONDAY).
THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY FOR US BY ANY MEANS...AS THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR US TO BE NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, LEAVING PTYPE
CONCERNS IN THE FRAY FOR THIS SYSTEM. CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON, AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME KIND OF IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA --
AND NOT NECESSARILY EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP A LITTLE MORE ON
THE WARM SIDE -- BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ATTM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS DUE TO MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW. TIMES OF -FZDZ STILL POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT COUPLE HOURS, HOWEVER MOST SITES WILL SEE MAINLY -SN BY
00Z. LOW CIGS AND VIS IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE UNDER -SN THROUGH
06Z FOR MOST SITES. NORTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN
FOR MOST SITES BY 00Z TO 10 TO 15KTS WITH G20 TO 25KTS. ELEVATED
WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH 10/12Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR BY 12Z AS -SN EXITS. SOME SITES COULD BE VFR AFTER 15Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ016>018-020>023-025>028-031>034-087-088-095>099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ016-017-086>088-095>098.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD/FEF
AVIATION...ELD
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