776
FXUS63 KAPX 121716
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
-ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD WINTRY WEATHER AND HEAVY ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
-SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
DEEP 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGHING OCCUPIES MOST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
ITS AXIS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. COLD CP
AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUPY
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY, WHICH IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONE OR TWO
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO ORGANIZE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND NW NORTHERN LOWER. THESE ONE OR TWO BANDS WILL LIKELY TURN
MORE CELLULAR AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR ON LAND, LIMITING ANY
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THINGS QUICKLY TURN ACTIVE
TONIGHT AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORING EASTERN UPPER.
FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CLASSIC
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LONG TERM PATTERN
REMAINS COLD MONDAY AND BEYOND AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SUPPORTS 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE -
15 TO -20 RANGE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
-GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA AND QUICKLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. FAIRLY DECENT ORGANIZATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CLIPPER AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DRIVE SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD AS EARLY AS 00Z TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
WINDS INCREASING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HI-REZ GUIDANCE DEPICTS
STRONG 850MB WINDS OF 50 TO 70+ KNOTS AND THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY, LEADING TO
CONTINUOUSLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS WHILE GUSTING INTO THE 40S
BETWEEN 06 AND 18Z. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
CORE OF LOW PRESSURE PROVIDES A DRY SLOT OF WARM AIR TO CREATE A
WINDOW OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EASTERN UPPER REMAINS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED F-GEN BAND, CREATING A SWATH OF TOTALS OF 7-10" AND
LOCALIZED AREAS OF 12" BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
-ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD WINTRY WEATHER AND HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT STRONG SURFACE
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE AREAS UNDER A HEAVIER INFLUENCE OF
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD MOST LIKELY OBSERVE HEAVY
MIXED PRECIP/WINTRY WEATHER. BLENDED MODELS KEEP THE CWA UNDER
THE COLDER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
SNOW OVER A FOOT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
ANY SHIFT IN THIS SYSTEM'S TRACK LEAVES THE POTENTIAL OF MUCH
LOWER SNOW TOTALS OR THE CONCERN FOR P-TYPE ISSUES.
-SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S... BACKSIDE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGHING
CENTERING ITS AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST, REMAINING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MOST
AREAS, KEEPING WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND INCREASES HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
LARGELY VFR TO PERHAPS MARGINAL MVFR PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH AN AXIS OF PESKY -SHSN SCATTERED AROUND PLN AND APN... A
TREND THAT WILL CARRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TAPER BY THE
EVENING. WITH ANY -SHSN PASSING OVER EITHER OF THESE TAF SITES,
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY VSBY).
VFR IS RESTORED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BETTER SLUG OF
MOISTURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AS SUCH,
ANTICIPATING DETERIORATING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AND LIFR, AS
SN BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND SUB-ONE-MILE VSBYS PREVAIL. LLWS
IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT... FIRST FAVORING THE NORTHERN LOWER
TAF SITES, AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO CIU LATER FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF
ANY LLWS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THOSE STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF
THE DECK TO JUST MIX TO THE SURFACE BEFORE SUNRISE. NONETHELESS,
ANTICIPATING GUSTY E TO NE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
FLIPPING SW TO W AT PLN, TVC, AND MBL LATE IN THE PERIOD... WITH
STEADIER SN TRANSITIONING TO SHSN, PERHAPS MIXING WITH RA AT MBL
AND TVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>018-021>024-086>088-095>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025>036-041-042.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...HAD
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