596
FXUS63 KAPX 122333
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
733 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND-DRIVEN SNOWS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FRIDAY
MORNING.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL NOAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION DIRECTED AT
RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITHIN THIS FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
SPREADING INTO OUR AREA AT THE MOMENT, BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY PUTTING AN END TO WEAK LAKE
PROCESSES. MUCH MORE CANADA AIRMASS INFLUENCE, AS EVIDENT BY CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH THESE VALUES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH.
UPSTREAM WAVE AND ATTENDANT RATHER VIGOROUS SURFACE RESPONSE WILL
SLIDE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THE RESULT. POST-
SYSTEM REPRIEVE IS A SHORT ONE TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH RAPID
NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION VIA DUAL 140+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
CORES LOOKING TO DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
INITIAL EMPHASIS CENTERS ON SNOW AMOUNTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND TRAVEL
IMPACTS (HEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOCUS
THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WHAT AGAIN COULD BE A MAJOR WINTER WEATHER
EVENT LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
ONE RATHER IMPRESSIVE COMPACT SYSTEM TO VISIT THE NORTHWOODS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH WELL ADVERTISED SUB 990MB SURFACE LOW
LOOKING TO CUT DIRECTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING.
FORCING IS INTENSE, WITH CORE OF UPPER LEVEL JET DRIVEN DIFFLUENCE
CENTERED DIRECTLY ABOVE STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON NOSE OF 60+
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GUIDANCE DERIVED SOUNDINGS SHOW INTENSE LIFT IN
AND PERHAPS JUST A BIT ABOVE THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER,
SUPPORTING EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. TRANSIENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC AXES WILL ALSO ENHANCE SNOW RATES AT
TIMES. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...LOOKING AT A WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR LIKELY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RESIDE, BUT OVERALL TRENDS ARE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH EVENTUAL DRY-SLOT INFLUENCES...TARGETING AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIEST TOTALS. RAPID DRY SLOT ADVANCEMENT AND A
BIT WARMER THERMAL PROFILES (WILL LIKELY EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO
RAIN AFTER MAIN CORE OF SNOW SHIELD PIVOTS EAST) WILL FOCUS LOWEST
SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COLLAR COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY. EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO VARY FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF M-55...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO PERHAPS 8 INCHES TO THE
NORTH. ALTHOUGH BEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO DRIVE GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD, STILL
LOOKING AT WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES...ONLY FURTHER
EXACERBATING THE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES EXIT STAGE RIGHT RATHER QUICKLY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SOME NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
ENHANCEMENT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH QUICK LOSS OF
BOTH SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOULD THROTTLE BACK
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THIS LAKE CONTRIBUTION.
ENJOY THE BREAK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE SUITE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT
IMPACTING THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
UNDERSTAND WHAT FOLLOWS IN NOTHING MORE THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE
PROGNOSTICS AND SUBJECT TO MANY CHANGES AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER:
ANYWAY, NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION LOOKS IMPRESSIVE INDEED,
WITH COMPLETELY COUPLED DUAL 140+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET CORES DRIVING
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY, WITH THIS TROUGHING GOING NEGATIVE TILT AND POTENTIALLY
CLOSING OFF AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK OVER, WITH COMBINATION OF
PACIFIC AND GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE SENDING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES...A VALUE THAT IS 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
INITIAL INTENSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DRIVEN PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION AND TROWAL DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IS RATHER EXCEPTIONAL ON
THE ABOVE, EXACT LOCATION OF INTENSE THERMAL GRADIENT AND WHERE THE
ABOVE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE MAXIMIZED REMAINS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN... WITH BOTH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
SENSITIVE TO BOTH. WITH ALL THAT SAID, IF CURRENT TRENDS DO INDEED
HOLD, PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN COULD EASILY SEE SNOW AMOUNTS WELL
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT BY LATER MONDAY, AND UNFORTUNATELY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. DEPTH OF LOW (SOME PROGS SHOW SUB
980MB FINAL OUTCOMES) WOULD ALSO YIELD QUITE THE WIND EVENT. AGAIN,
STILL MUCH TOO EARLY FOR ANY REAL SPECIFICS ON THIS SYSTEM, BUT ONE
THAT ALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
AN INCOMING CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA FRIDAY. A BAND OF
HEALTHY SNOW WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN MI LATE TONIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND NE-WARD WITH TIME.
BLSN WILL ALSO OCCUR (ESPECIALLY BEFORE IT MIXES WITH RAIN),
MOST COMMONLY AT CIU/PLN. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH/TURN
TO RAIN AT MBL/TVC/APN ON FRIDAY. SNOW- LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
LOW, NEAR 10:1.
GUSTY SE WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. LLWS VERY LATE TONIGHT MBL/TVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>018-021>024-086>088-095>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025>036-041-042.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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