318
FXUS63 KAPX 130747
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY.
-MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN, POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ICING, AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST: MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AMERICA WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A CLIPPER PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THIS MORNING, SNOWFALL RATES WILL LOWER AS THIS CLIPPER
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND FINALLY ENDS TONIGHT.
500MB TROUGHING THEN SHIFTS ITS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN/CANADIAN BORDER. A
TIGHT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING DIVIDING MICHIGAN IN
HALF. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TOWARD ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOWFALL ALONG WITH HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
AFTER DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
TUESDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TURNS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND, RETURNING CONDITIONS BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE FOR
MID-MARCH. PERIODIC WAVES OF ENERGY WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE P-TYPES
POSSIBLE, BUT NO EVIDENCE OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEYOND
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY CYCLONE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
-ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY... STRONG
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW
TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A
SHORT WINDOW OF DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WINDS AND LIGHTER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS AND SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CLIPPER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
GUSTING INTO THE 40S WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR LESS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN HIGHEST FOR AREAS
ALONG THE TIP OF THE MITT/STRAITS WHERE F-GEN DRIVES THE MOST LIFT,
WITH 5-9 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
WILL OBSERVE TOTALS OF 3-7 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. REGARDLESS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, GUSTY WINDS
WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW AND RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITIES
FOR THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES.
-MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL,
MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT
NORTHERN MICHIGAN... STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
TAPPING INTO THE GULF COMBINED WITH IDEAL MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE TO DELIVER
HIGH QPF TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING MORE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, RESULTING IN THE STORM TRACK SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH. THE NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION...
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
NORTHERN LOWER WHILE NORTHWEST NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
WILL MORE LIKELY OBSERVE HEAVY SNOW. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY
TO MESSAGE SNOW AND ICING TOTALS AS MODELS VARY TOTALS RUN BY
RUN. AS IT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE... HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF
FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2", WHICH IN
THEORY COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICING FOR AREAS
SUBJECT TO FREEZING RAIN WHILE INTENSE AND EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
COULD RESULT IN WELL OVER A FOOT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
AN INCOMING CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA FRIDAY. A BAND OF
HEALTHY SNOW WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN MI LATE TONIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND NE-WARD WITH TIME.
BLSN WILL ALSO OCCUR (ESPECIALLY BEFORE IT MIXES WITH RAIN),
MOST COMMONLY AT CIU/PLN. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH/TURN
TO RAIN AT MBL/TVC/APN ON FRIDAY. SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
LOW, NEAR 10:1. IFR TO LOW-END MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DIMINISHES.
GUSTY SE WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. LLWS VERY LATE TONIGHT MBL/TVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-
017-088-095>098.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ018-
021>024-086-087-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ020-025>036-041-042.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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