715
FXUS63 KAPX 200350
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1150 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR NUISANCE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES SURGING ABOVE FREEZING AND TRENDING MILDER INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND FOR AREAS STILL CONTENDING WITH ICE
STORM RECOVERY AND UTILITY DISRUPTIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS
DEEPER TROUGHING IS FORCED EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
ATLANTIC CANADA AS A HISTORIC THERMAL RIDGE FLEXES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL COME KNOCKING AT VARIOUS TIMES OVER THE COMING DAYS AS A
PROGRESSIVE / PSEUDO-ZONAL NW FLOW REGIME DIRECTS PACIFIC BORNE
WAVES EJECTING FROM A POTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CURRENTLY RANSACKING
THE PACIFIC NW INTO BC AND ALBERTA. RESULT WILL BE A SERIES OF LOW-
MOISTURE, WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN WAVES TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD, THIS
SPELLS PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS, THOUGH WITH LIMITED QPF TO WORK
WITH. THERE IS SET TO BE A SERIES OF TWO WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: ONE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, AND ANOTHER LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. I KNOW WHAT
YOU'RE THINKING... THIS SOUNDS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF LAST WEEKEND...
BUT I CAN ASSURE YOU, WE WILL BE CONTENDING WITH FAR LESS MOISTURE,
AND THUS IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE LAST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL DRAG A BIT OF A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ACT AS A BIT OF A
RESET BY REPRESSING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DOES REMAIN IN PLACE, THOUGH,
SO ANTICIPATION IS THAT WE LIKELY RETURN TO ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
PASSING THROUGH AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE P-TYPE
CONCERNS... WITH GUIDANCE HONING IN ON THIS TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATER
NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE WITH TIME TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PICOTS OVER THE REGION AND 500MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 30S IN EASTERN UPPER AND
FAR NORTHERN LOWER, LIKELY 40 TO 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32... WHICH
SHOULD, AT THE VERY LEAST, COMMENCE THE PROCESS OF MELTING ICE OFF
THINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, BUT COULD BE HINDERED IF DEWPOINTS
STAY BELOW 32. THE QUIETER STRETCH ENDS TONIGHT AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME CONSIDERABLE WAA AT
THE SURFACE, THOUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ALMOST ISOTHERMAL AT 0C IN
EASTERN UPPER... SO EITHER LOOKING AT A SMATTERING OF 1-3" OF WET
SNOW ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY, WITH AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH TO THE
BRIDGE DUE TO POORER RATIOS AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN. AT
THIS TIME, WILL AVOID THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES GIVEN THE
MARGINALITY OF THIS ENVIRONMENT, BUT IT WOULD BE IGNORANT TO AVOID
MENTIONING POTENTIAL FOR ICE BUILDUP ON THE MACKINAC BRIDGE IF ANY
OF THIS PRECIP CAN FALL AS RAIN IN THE STRAITS WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
32. ELSEWHERE? LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN, BUT EXPECTING 0.10" OR LESS,
BARRING THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT CAN MANIFEST SOME
CONVECTION... BUT GUIDANCE IS BEARISH TO THAT IDEA FOR NOW. BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THAT ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP DEPARTS IN THE
MORNING, WE WILL BE STARING AT TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH DEWPOINTS TO MATCH, AS A LINGERING DRIZZLE HOLDS
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL FOR SURE LEAD TO ANY REMAINING ICE ON TREES AND
STRUCTURES TO FREEFALL / MELT OFF. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY POKE
INTO EASTERN UPPER AS WELL, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW SLOW THIS
HAPPENS BECAUSE THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE THEY GET STUCK AT 31-32
AND IT IS DRIZZLY... COLLABORATED WITH MQT ABOUT AN ADVISORY AND
DECIDED CONFIDENCE JUST ISN'T THERE, BUT ISN'T OFF THE TABLE LATER
TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE NOWCASTING.
EVEN WARMER SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO START AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE NW. ANTICIPATING A RAIN-TO-SNOW PRECIP
TRANSITION IN EASTERN UPPER, WITH MAINLY RAIN / MIX ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND RAIN FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE ENDING AS A SKIFF OF
SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE ISN'T HANDLING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL, BUT REGARDLESS, LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
MARGINAL TO PERHAPS LOW-END IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. MORE TO COME. BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM DRAGS THROUGH,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S BY MONDAY, WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS. SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS POKING
BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND INTO THE 40S BY MIDWEEK... WHICH IS PRETTY
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY TO
DRAG A WEAK SYSTEM IN TUESDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED AND
MOISTURE FILLED SYSTEM AFTER MIDWEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE MIXED
PRECIP TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS, MUCH MORE TO COME IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN AROUND/AFTER 6Z. PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE CIU/PLN/APN; THINK -SN IS MORE LIKELY AT CIU, WITH BETTER
SHOT OF PREVAILING FZRAPL AT PLN/APN...BUT COULD MIX IN AT CIU AS
WELL. CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR HERE THRU 12Z, AND
COULD HANG ON THRU 18Z OR SO, BEFORE THINGS FINALLY TRY TO SCATTER
OUT A BIT. MEANWHILE, TVC AND MBL MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ANYTHING, BUT
LIKELY RA IF ANYTHING DOES REACH THE GROUND THRU 12-15Z WITH BRIEF
VISBYS/CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER. A BIT OF DZ COULD HANG ON HERE BUT
THINK IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE LIKELY AFTER 15-18Z. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY TURNING
AROUND TO NW AROUND 5KTS AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. LLWS AROUND 1500FT
FROM SW AT 30-35KTS THRU 12Z. FOG NOT IMPOSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
NOT LIKELY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...FEF
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