930
FXUS63 KAPX 200648
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE FREEZING AND MILDER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE SHORT-LVIED QUIETER WEATHER CAME TO AN END LATE LAST NIGHT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AS A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION, BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO START
THE DAY. OVERALL, STILL DEALING WITH A PRETTY MARGINAL SETUP,
WITH DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE AND A TRICKY THERMAL
PROFILE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK, BUT WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING... THINKING IS STILL THAT MAINLY WET SNOW WILL BE
HAD UP THAT WAY (WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY STARTING AS SNOW),
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY, TAPERING TO
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT WHERE SLEET LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. FREEZING RAIN/ DRIZZLE IS STILL A
CONCERN AROUND THE STRAITS AREA THIS MORNING AND FAR NORTHERN
LOWER/ FAR SOUTHERN EASTERN UPPER, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK (THINKING ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A GLAZE OR LESS). ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN LOWER, SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A
LIGHT RAIN EVENT (WITH PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/ DRIZZLE TRYING TO
MAKE AN APPEARANCE DOWN INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT TOWARDS ALPENA)
WITH MINIMAL OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS BETTER FORCING SLIDES
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING LEAVING PERHAPS A LIGHT
DRIZZLE BEHIND, THE BIGGER STORY BECOMES THE TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE AS THEY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, WITH EASTERN UPPER AND
THE STRAITS REGION SLOWER TO RESPOND...WITH ANY ICING EXPECTED
TO MELT IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
EVENTUALLY. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, WARMEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW 50S EVEN
LOOK POSSIBLE.
THIS WARMING TREND CARRIES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND LOW 40S TO EVEN LOW 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS/ MIX OF BOTH. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED, BUT AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER SAID, MODELS DON'T SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS SYSTEM ALL TOO WELL... SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING
FORECAST CYCLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES TAKE A SLIGHT
STEP BACK FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST DURING THE DAY (ASIDE FROM UPPER,
WHICH MAY HANG CLOSER TO THE LOW 30S). NORTHWEST FLOW STICKS
AROUND ALOFT, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE A BIT AGAIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN AROUND/AFTER 6Z. PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE CIU/PLN/APN; THINK -SN IS MORE LIKELY AT CIU, WITH BETTER
SHOT OF PREVAILING FZRAPL AT PLN/APN...BUT COULD MIX IN AT CIU AS
WELL. CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR HERE THRU 12Z, AND
COULD HANG ON THRU 18Z OR SO, BEFORE THINGS FINALLY TRY TO SCATTER
OUT A BIT. MEANWHILE, TVC AND MBL MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ANYTHING, BUT
LIKELY RA IF ANYTHING DOES REACH THE GROUND THRU 12-15Z WITH BRIEF
VISBYS/CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER. A BIT OF DZ COULD HANG ON HERE BUT
THINK IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE LIKELY AFTER 15-18Z. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY TURNING
AROUND TO NW AROUND 5KTS AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. LLWS AROUND 1500FT
FROM SW AT 30-35KTS THRU 12Z. FOG NOT IMPOSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
NOT LIKELY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...FEF
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