073
FXUS63 KAPX 201027
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
627 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE FREEZING AND MILDER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE SHORT-LVIED QUIETER WEATHER CAME TO AN END LATE LAST NIGHT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AS A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION, BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO START
THE DAY. OVERALL, STILL DEALING WITH A PRETTY MARGINAL SETUP,
WITH DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE AND A TRICKY THERMAL
PROFILE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK, BUT WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING... THINKING IS STILL THAT MAINLY WET SNOW WILL BE
HAD UP THAT WAY (WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY STARTING AS SNOW),
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY, TAPERING TO
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT WHERE SLEET LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. FREEZING RAIN/ DRIZZLE IS STILL A
CONCERN AROUND THE STRAITS AREA THIS MORNING AND FAR NORTHERN
LOWER/ FAR SOUTHERN EASTERN UPPER, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK (THINKING ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A GLAZE OR LESS). ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN LOWER, SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A
LIGHT RAIN EVENT (WITH PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/ DRIZZLE TRYING TO
MAKE AN APPEARANCE DOWN INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT TOWARDS ALPENA)
WITH MINIMAL OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS BETTER FORCING SLIDES
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING LEAVING PERHAPS A LIGHT
DRIZZLE BEHIND, THE BIGGER STORY BECOMES THE TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE AS THEY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, WITH EASTERN UPPER AND
THE STRAITS REGION SLOWER TO RESPOND...WITH ANY ICING EXPECTED
TO MELT IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
EVENTUALLY. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, WARMEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW 50S EVEN
LOOK POSSIBLE.
THIS WARMING TREND CARRIES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND LOW 40S TO EVEN LOW 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS/ MIX OF BOTH. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED, BUT AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER SAID, MODELS DON'T SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS SYSTEM ALL TOO WELL... SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING
FORECAST CYCLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES TAKE A SLIGHT
STEP BACK FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST DURING THE DAY (ASIDE FROM UPPER,
WHICH MAY HANG CLOSER TO THE LOW 30S). NORTHWEST FLOW STICKS
AROUND ALOFT, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE A BIT AGAIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. UNTIL THEN, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY DROPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WHERE PRECIP IS FALLING.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM AFTER IT PASSED THROUGH
THE MORNING, BUT CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT THIS AFTERNOON -- BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR A TIME INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO BUILD BACK IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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