940
FXUS63 KAPX 202328
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF NORTHERN MI THIS WEEKEND.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS MORNING'S CLIPPER
NOW WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO ENERGY MAKING
HEADWAY INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM RIDGING
FLATTENS WITH TIME EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH THAT UPSTREAM ENERGY SET
TO RIDE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. INTO NEXT WEEK, A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE TODAY, OF
COURSE TAKING LONGEST TO MODERATE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. (ANJ STILL
AT 31 AS OF 1:30 PM) WHILE THOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA PROPEL THROUGH THE 40S. LOWS TONIGHT SET TO DROP BACK
BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S FOR MOST.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEEKEND AS OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
NORTHERN MI. INITIAL PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND TIP
OF THE MITT. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THIS INITIAL WARM ADVECTION WING
OF PRECIP FALLS AS PRIMARILY WET/DENSE SNOW WITH SOME LOCALIZED 1-4"
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER
SOUTH WITH TIME, ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP
TYPE. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW, PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN, MIX
ACROSS THE U.P. AND STRAITS, WITH THIS PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO THE TIP
OF THE MITT AND FAR NORTHEAST LOWER. PRIMARILY RAIN ANTICIPATED
SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. OVERALL, NOT A
WIDESPREAD IMPACT EVENT, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH THERE TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES FOR POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P., STRAITS, AND
PERHAPS DOWN INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER.
THIS WAVE LARGELY EXITS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
FAVORED IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA -- COLDEST IN THE
U.P. WHERE SOME LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGITS READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY'S HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LONGER RANGE TRENDS FAVOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
WAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SOME LIFR CIGS/VISBYS TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FG/BR WITH WINDS
GENERALLY VRB AT OR BELOW 5KTS. PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO START AS SN
FOR CIU/PLN AND PROBABLY AT APN...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RASN
AND ALL RA BY 18-20Z, ESP FOR POINTS SOUTH OF MACKINAC BRIDGE. MOST
INTENSE PRECIP LIKELY BETWEEN 15-21Z...COULD REMAIN ALL SN AT CIU
ALL DAY WITH LIFR VISBYS AT TIMES...NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS SPREADS
SOUTHWARD TO PLN. ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE SPOTTY FOR MBL/TVC IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SKIES TRY TO SCT OUT HERE BEHIND A NEBULOUS
WARM FRONT; MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN HERE. PREVAILING IFR TO LOW
MVFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED, BUT COULD BE LIFR UNDER HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
(ESP HEAVIEST SNOW...MORE LIKELY FOR CIU). WINDS SATURDAY AM
GENERALLY SE AROUND 5-10KTS; WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO S AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25+KT GUSTS, ESP FOR TVC,
MBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
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