763
FXUS63 KAPX 211047
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS IN EASTERN UPPER WILL PRIMARILY SEE TIMES OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TODAY, WITH TOTALS ADDING UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE SOO.
- TIMES OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR WINTRY MIX TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF M-72, SPREADING TO MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER
TONIGHT.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR
GRADUALLY SEEPING IN AND SETTLING OVER NORTHERN MI.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: CURRENTLY A PNA PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS EXISTS, WITH AN UNSEASONAL STRONG 597 DAM UPPER HIGH
OVER AZ/SOCAL. DUE TO THIS, THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK IS FUNNELING
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WA/ID/MT. WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAN ROCKIES, A COUPLE LEE SIDE LOWS HAVE BEEN
FORMING HERE AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH..
BECOMING CLIPPERS. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO NORTHERN MI TODAY, AND IS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE
US/CAN BORDER NEAR NORTH CENTRAL MT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTATED NW TO SE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW REACHING MN BY MID MORNING TODAY. WARM SECTOR PRECIP WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MI MID TO LATE MORNING
TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW (OR TIMES OF A MIX) WILL
FALL OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-72, LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW) WILL BE SEEN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. PRECIP WILL LIGHTEN UP
AND/OR STOP FOR MOST PLACES THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION (RAIN, SNOW OR BOTH) MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATUERS
POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME SPOTS. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN MONDAY, HOWEVER QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK..
CONTINUING THE CREATION OF LEE SIDE LOWS THAT WILL LIKELY TRACK
TOWARDS MI. A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATUERS REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONGER TERM FORCAST, AS
DECENT SPREAD OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLES (SEEN IN
CLUSTER ANALYSIS) AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE
MEANS THAT DETAILS ON WHAT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE, TIMING, AND
AMOUNTS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE FOR NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: DUE TO THE 0C 850MB LINE BEING RIGHT OVER
NORTHERN MI, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT'S PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
CURRENTLY EXISTS (KAPX 00Z RAOB DEPICTS STARK DRYING JUST ABOVE
850 MB), AND WILL IMPACT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION CATCHING UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THE TRACE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING... INDICATING MOSTLY SNOW WILL
BE SEEN FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HILLS OF NORTHERN LOWER (AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER
NEAR PRESQUE ISLE). NEAR SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTH
NEAR MIDDAY, AT THE SAME TIME OF SW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ADVECTING WARMER TEMPS OVER NORTHERN LOWER. NOT ONLY WILL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE HIGH 30S AND 40S, TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM AS WELL... RESULTING IN MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER
SEEING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN
UPPER WILL SEE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER AS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EXITS, NOT ONLY WILL A WARM NOSE MOVE OVERHEAD..
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED. PRECIPITATION WILL STILL
LIKELY BE FALLING, HOWEVER THE DGZ WILL NOT BE SATURATED AND A
WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY EXIST. EAST WINDS WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATUERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. THE
GOOD THING, IS THAT THE MODERATE PRECIP WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED
BACK TO LIGHT AND BECOME INTERMITTENT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE SEEN IN SOME SPOTS OF EASTERN UPPER LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
INTERMITTENT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TOTALS UP TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH (WHERE ICE CAN BECOME MEASURABLE). THE
SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE BRIEF AND PRODUCE MOSTLY SNOW AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
THE LACK OF A PROLONGED WINDOW OF IDEAL FORCING AND THE RIGHT
TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE WILL RESULT IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS GENERALLY REMAINING NON-IMPACTFUL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
EASTERN UPPER ON THE OTHER HAND WILL RESIDE OVER MORE IDEAL FORCING,
HOWEVER THE WINDOW(S) REMAINS SHORT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY
1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOO. THE WARM NOSE COULD NOT REACH THE SOO, AND
RESULT IN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO SEE UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. AS FAR AS THE
ICE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS REMAINING LOCAL AND ONLY UP
TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.P. AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE CIGS WILL BE MBL AND TVC. VFR
CIGS AT MBL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WHILE CURRENT LIFR CIGS AT
TVC ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR FOR A TIME THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DROPS TO IFR VSBYS
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS OF FALLING PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS LOOK TO TURN TO
NORTH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...DJC
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