851
FXUS63 KAPX 211710
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
110 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS IN EASTERN UPPER WILL PRIMARILY SEE TIMES OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TODAY, WITH TOTALS ADDING UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE SOO.
- TIMES OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR WINTRY MIX TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF M-72 THIS AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR
GRADUALLY SEEPING IN AND SETTLING OVER NORTHERN MI.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN ABSOLUTE UNIT OF A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS, DRIVING ALL-TIME MONTHLY RECORD WARMTH BY LARGE
MARGINS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND DAILY RECORD HIGHS LEAKING
INTO THE PLAINS. QUICK ZONAL FLOW RUNNING WNW FROM ALBERTA TO THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVING A SERIES OF WAVES, WITH A STATIONARY / WARM
FRONT SUPPRESSING THAT WARMTH WELL SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. OPEN
WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED 998MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DRIVING
A WARM ADVECTION WING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH JUST ENOUGH SATURATION
TO FORCE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES FLIPPING TO RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO IN EASTERN UPPER, ANTICIPATING A
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME SNOWFALL TAPERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE /
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. PROBABLY
NOT ENOUGH TO DRIVE HEADLINES, WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS.
MEANWHILE, SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE, SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING THROUGH, AND PRODUCING VERY LARGE SNOWFLAKES TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS NORTHERN LOWER WINDS UP FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH TEMPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE HANDLED THIS SNOWFALL WITH AN SPS AS WELL.
TEMPS SHOULD LAND IN THE MID-UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FROM THE BRIDGE TO
M-72... WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY STAVE OFF ANY ICING CONCERNS ON
MIGHTY MAC... TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR. ANTICIPATING THE
MILD TEMPS TO HOLD OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAVERSES THE REGION TO DRIVE A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MIDNIGHT AND AFTER... PROBABLY
SOUTH OF M-68... THAT COULD END AS SOME SNOW FLURRIES AS A
POLAR AIRMASS BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
SHOULD CLEAR SAGINAW BAY 12-14Z / 8-10AM SUNDAY.
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD / STRATUS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL STUNT HIGHS INTO THE 30S WITH
QUITE THE GLOOMY FEEL. EVENTUALLY, THE INFLUENCES OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THAT MOIST LAYER LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOWS WILL RESPOND AS SUCH, DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN EASTERN UPPER /
STRAITS AREA. MORE SUNSHINE IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY AS 500MB HEIGHT
RISES COMMENCE, BUT WITH THE CORE OF THE POLAR AIRMASS OVERHEAD,
ANTICIPATING BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WE DO
COMMENCE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MIDWEEK BEFORE WE SEE-SAW UP AND DOWN TO END
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION WINGS DRIVING NUISANCE
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS (SNOW NORTH, RAIN SOUTH, SOME SORT
OF MIX IN BETWEEN) WILL NOT SLOW DOWN, WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS
SET TO PASS THROUGH BOTH TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY... SO FAR IN MARCH, IT
SEEMS AS THOUGH MACKINAC BRIDGE CLOSURES ARE ABOUT AS COMMON AS THE
SUN COMING UP IN THE MORNING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE DO A GOOD-OLD FASHIONED NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THAW... SLOW AND STEADY WHILE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY BASKS IN
WARMTH. SO IF YOU'RE IN THE MOOD FOR LATE-SEASON WINTER
RECREATION... WE'RE GOING TO HAVE PLENTY OF IT GOING INTO APRIL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.P. AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE CIGS WILL BE MBL AND TVC. VFR
CIGS AT MBL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WHILE CURRENT LIFR CIGS AT
TVC ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR FOR A TIME THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DROPS TO IFR VSBYS
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS OF FALLING PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS LOOK TO TURN TO
NORTH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...DJC
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