141
FXUS63 KAPX 221049
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
649 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN TODAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINING PRECIP
CHANCES AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
FORECAST: CURRENTLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN U.P..
AT THE SAME TIME, A ~1001 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI IS GRADUALLY TRACKING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT. SHORTLY BEHIND ITS PASSAGE, A BAND OF FGEN AROUND
850MB WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN MI. UNDER MORE IDEAL
UPPER FORCING (DIVERGENCE FROM A JET ALOFT) PAIRED WITH THE
LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND LINGERING MOISTURE, LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND/OR SNOW WITH AN EMBEDDED SHOWER OR TWO WILL TRACK
THROUGH THIS MORNING. PRECIP IN SOME SPOTS WILL LIKELY TURN TO
FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER HILLS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH (UP
TO 25 MPH OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NW LOWER), PEAKING IN THE MID
MORNING AND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CAN. THE WEST TO EAST UPPER
FLOW WILL STEER THESE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, KEEPING THE
PATTERN UNSETTLED. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL START TO IMPACT NORTHERN MI
TUESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE
MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME AS A SECOND CLIPPER STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE BEHIND THE
LARGER CLIPPER COULD BRING IN A COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
UNCERTAINTIES/IMPACTS: HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR AMOUNTS
WITH THIS MORNINGS PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIGHT, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH (IF ANY) AND ANY ICE
WILL A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT MAX. THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN, WITH LIQUID QPF REMAINING
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN U.P. AS VERY WARM AIR WAS IN
PLACE TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TD TRACE STAYING ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT AS WELL
(INDICATIVE OF PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ELEVATED
BOUNDARY). BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATER TODAY (MIDDAY/AFTERNOON). THAT DOESN'T RULE OUT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCAL AREAS EARLIER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (NEAR THE ST. MARY'S RIVER) AND IN THE
HIGHER HILLS OF NORTHERN LOWER... RESULTING IN THE CHANCES FOR
FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THERE IS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY IN MONDAY MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURES DUE
TO CHANCES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-15C TO -10C ) ARRIVE OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20KTS AT THIS LEVEL. THE MAIN REASON CHANCES
ARE SO LOW IS THAT BACKGROUND MOISTURE IS VERY LOW (-20C TDS AT
850MB). MODEL SOUNDING TRACES OF THE NAM AND RAP SHOW THIS AS WELL..
WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADD FROM THE LAKES BUT IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID, SOME LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER COULD BE SEEN OVER SPOTS WHICH COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS
WARMER THAN FORECASTED. ALTHOUGH, LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING OVER THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER INTERIOR. THIS LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SEEING IDEAL RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AS A COLD FRONT RETREATS SOUTH OF THE AREA, COOL BUT RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR IS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD. STRATUS AND SOME -DZ
IS RESULTING. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN EARLY APN/TVC/MBL, BUT
THESE WILL DEPART AS THE MORNING PROCEEDS. IFR WILL BE COMMON
THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES BUT MBL, WITH LIFR AT TIMES AT
CIU/PLN. BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR POKES IN
FROM THE NORTH, AND CIU AND THEN PLN WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH LONGER AT THE OTHER SITES.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ345-346.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ
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