518
FXUS63 KAPX 230608
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
208 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY OVER NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
WITH ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING UNDER AN INCH
- NEXT SYSTEM RETURNS ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES TO EASTERN UPPER AND
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
CURRENTLY KAPX RADAR SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER
UNDER GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS. A COUPLE OF FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN
AT TIMES OVER AREAS NORTH OF M-72, WITH INTERMITTENT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. A COUPLE OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES RESIDE OVER MANITOBA CAN AND WI, AS A ~1030MB
SURFACE HIGH TRACKS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ONE
CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF MI. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER ALMOST ALL OF
NORTHERN MI, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND SOUTH
WHERE WINDS ARE NORTHWEST, INDICATIVE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE
TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN
AREA OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ESTABLISHING OVER NORTHERN
LK MI TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS MORNING DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER NORTHERN MI, STEERING THE SOUTHWEST
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS WI. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS
BL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 25 KTS, CONTINUING TO ENHANCE AN
AREA OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NW LOWER. AS A RESULT, MORE
DEFINED CLUSTERS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER
NW LOWER NEAR SUNRISE AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE UNTIL COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR
MOVES OVERHEAD AFTER SUNRISE, THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
SNOW SHOWERS. 0-3KM INSTABILITY OF +30 J/KG EXISTS TODAY, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A CLUSTERED LOOK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. VERY
LITTLE BACKGROUND MOISTURE EXISTS, WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
AT A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER BRINGS
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS
CAN, BRINING A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MI. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE, WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE REFLECTED IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES STRUGGLING TO
PRODUCE MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER (90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE LREF SHOWS 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NW
LOWER). SNOW RATIOS WILL BE NEAR 13:1, RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
WETTER CHARACTER COMPARED TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN UPPER AS A COUPLE SURFACE LOW'S FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE
BY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FOR NORTHERN LOWER, AND HIGH 30S OVER EASTERN UPPER. WARM SECTOR
PRECIP WILL START TO FALL OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS STILL TOO MUCH SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR EXACT DETAILS OF WHAT WILL
BE SEEN THURSDAY, AS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY FORMS TO THE
WEST AND TRACKS IN OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME OF THE
OUTLIERS HINT AT A SCENARIO WHERE THE GULF TAP AND DEEPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE MEET OVER MI AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, POTENTIALLY DROPPING A
HALF OF AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IN SOME FORM. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
QPF REMAIN BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER, AND A TENTH OR TWO MORE FOR EASTERN UPPER
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE, INTIAL SIGNALS SHOW RAIN
SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE DURING THE DAY AND A WINTRY MIX AT NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. THESE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
WE GET CLOSER DUE TO MODEL SENSITIVITIES TO THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
BEFORE THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND SEASONAL CHANGES.
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START TO WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
LIGHT NE/NNE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHSN (POSSIBLE FZDZ?) WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT COULD GO IFR AT TIMES ESP TO START TAF PERIOD.
SOME POTENTIAL TO SCT AROUND 12-15Z BUT EXPECT NW FLOW SHSN TO FLARE
UP AGAIN CLOSER TO 18-21Z WITH GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS; VISBYS
COULD LOWER TO IFR IN MORE ROBUST SHSN IN AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SKIES
TO SCT OUT AROUND 21-0Z; EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS RETURN TOWARD 6Z. 10-
15KT NE/NNE WINDS TURN N AND NNW AFTER 9Z, REMAINING 5-15KTS FROM NW
THRU MIDDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB IN AFTERNOON...TURNING S
AND INCREASING AGAIN TO 5-10KTS. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR FG/BR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 0Z TUES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ348-349.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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