067
FXUS63 KAPX 231800
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
200 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET WITH ACCUMULATIONS
REMAINING UNDER AN INCH.
- NEXT SYSTEM RETURNS ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES TO EASTERN UPPER
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER JUST IN TIME FOR THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NORTH, AND ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH SOUTH.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
CLASSIC RIDGE-WEST PSEUDO-TROUGHY EAST PATTERN IN THE UPPER AND MID
LEVELS SET TO REMAIN STUBBORN AS A MULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NOTED IS THE CONTINUITY OF THAT PESKY PROGRESSIVE WNW TO NW FLOW WE
SEEM TO NOT BE ABLE TO SHED, WHICH KEEPS A PRONOUNCED THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ZIP
OVERHEAD... A TREND THAT WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF NUISANCE MIXED / WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HINTS OF MORE AGGRESSIVE
WARMTH TRYING TO BATTLE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES
TO FOLD OVER THE REGION, FLIPPING THE STAGNANT SCRIPT WE HAVE ALL
BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE LAST WEEK.
DETAILS:
AT THE SURFACE, A CHONKER OF A 1031MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CORN BELT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IS ATTEMPTING TO BRING ABOUT
SUBSIDENCE, AND THUS HAS LED TO SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISSUE BEING, WE ARE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
HIGH, SO WE HAVE BEEN GRACED WITH CHILLY NNW FLOW, WHICH HAS STUNTED
TEMPS INTO THE 20S AND 30S, AND THAT'S ABOUT THE BEST WE WILL MUSTER
TODAY. IN ADDITION, COLD TEMPS ALOFT (850MB TEMPS PUSHING -15C,
INVERSION HEIGHT ROUGHLY 750MB) AND JUST ENOUGH SATURATION BENEATH
THE INVERSION WILL DRIVE SOME CONTINUITY OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR ACCUMS UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ARE
IN ORDER FOR SOME, WHILE MOST SEE A DUSTING THROUGH SUNSET AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY FLEXES AND PROMOTES CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH ZIPS OVERHEAD,
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ELIMINATE LINGERING SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL HEADING
INTO TONIGHT... AT LEAST AT FIRST.
ONE OF THOSE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES RIDING THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
PASS THROUGH / JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION WING... ALMOST A CARBON
COPY OF THIS PAST SATURDAY. STEADIER SNOWS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN
UPPER. FOR NORTHERN LOWER, A BRIEF THUMP OF SNOW (PROBABLY WITH
PRETTY BIG SNOWFLAKES REDUCING VISIBILITY) ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION
(LARGELY CONFINED TO M-72 AND NORTH) OVER THE COURSE OF 1-3 HOURS AS
A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO FORCE ITS WAY THROUGH. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WINTRY MIX SHOWERS LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE "WARMER" AIR FORCES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS PAST SATURDAY IS THAT BY
TUESDAY MORNING, ANTECEDENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S, SO THIS MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO MELT AWAY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE THAT WARMER AIR BUILDS BY AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS SNOW
AMOUNTS GO, GENERALLY MOST AREAS PROBABLY WIND UP WITH 2" OR LESS,
BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERLAP WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE, THIS
COULD BE ANNOYINGLY IMPACTFUL FOR SUCH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS BY NORTHERN
MICHIGAN STANDARDS. NONETHELESS, WITH THAT WARMER AIR BUILDING AND
HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING, EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING,
MID-UPPER 30S IN EASTERN UPPER SOUTH THROUGH THE M-32 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHERN LOWER... LOW-TO-MID 40S SOUTH THROUGH M-55... WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THOSE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TO PUSH 50 DEGREES BY THE
AFTERNOON.
THE MARGINAL WINTER WEATHER MASTERCLASS CARRIES ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WARMER AIR DESPERATELY TRIES TO FORCE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION,
AND IT WILL WITH SOME SUCCESS IN A FEW PLACES, PARTICULARLY SOUTH.
AS SUCH, ANTICIPATING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME FORM OF RAIN /SNOW MIX IN EASTERN UPPER.
EXPECTING MINIMAL ACCUMULATION (1" OR LESS) IN EASTERN UPPER AT THIS
JUNCTURE. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN YOOP AGAIN,
WARMING THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES... WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN LOWER, AND EVEN MID 50S POSSIBLE M-72 AND SOUTH BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING 60 (!!!) IN
GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES THURSDAY. THE PROBLEM THEN BECOMES THAT
THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED RIGHT OVER US BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A LITTLE BEEFIER OF A WAVE TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION... BRINGING A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION...
WITH THE MOST SNOW LIKELY IN EASTERN UPPER. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH WILL SUPPRESS WARMTH SOUTH... AND
IN A TESTAMENT TO THIS PATTERN'S STUBBORN NATURE... PUTTING US RIGHT
BACK TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY FOR FRIDAY... CHILLY, SNOW SHOWERS, AND
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S... A TOUCH WARMER SATURDAY... BEFORE WE
WARM UP SOME GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, PRESUMABLY WITH SOME MORE WINTRY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
THAT BEING SAID... THERE IS SOME GURGLING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE IS LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA
THAT THE WARMUPS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE FIGHT TO THEM AS WE GET
INTO APRIL, SO WHILE WE WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY CHILLY AIRMASSES AT TIMES... THERE ARE SIGNS OF
SPRING TRYING TO SHOW ITSELF, BUT WITH THE UP-AND-DOWN NATURE OF
TEMPS CONTINUING. I'D ANTICIPATE SNOWPACK TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO MELT BACK AS WE HEAD INTO APRIL, WHICH FOR THOSE WHO HAVE A
BONAFIDE GLACIER OF A SNOWPACK (**COUGH COUGH** EASTERN UPPER
INTO FAR NORTHERN LOWER), IS GOOD NEWS IN ITS OWN WAY...
REMEMBER THAT ONLY A FEW YEARS AGO A RAPID MELTOFF IN THE YOOP
CAUSED SOME SERIOUS "BLUE SKY FLOODING"... WHERE SO MUCH WATER
WAS STORED IN THE SNOWPACK THAT IT LED TO SERIOUS ISSUES WITH
FLOODING, AND EVEN WASHED OUT ROADS... TO THE POINT A DISASTER
DECLARATION RESULTED. FOR THOSE WANTING TO AVOID THAT, A SLOWER
MELTOFF OF THE ESTIMATED 5 TO EVEN 10+ (!!!) INCHES OF SNOW-
WATER-EQUIVALENT STORED IN THAT SNOWPACK IS NEEDED. WE SHALL
SEE... BUT THE BIG MELT MAY BE APPROACHING AND NEED TO BE
ADDRESSED IN DUE TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
CURRENT -SHSN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
BUILDING AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL-SHSN TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIG'S AND VSBY'S AT KCIU, KPLN, AND KAPN. KTVC AND KMBL WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NW
WINDS TURNING WSW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-
346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...SJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page