142
FXUS63 KAPX 240631
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
231 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS TO EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS
MORNING. LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
MORNING'S COMMUTE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
MI AND LINGER THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER MN/WI MOVING EAST
TOWARDS MI THIS MORNING. A PNA PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS AIDING
IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AS WELL AS A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING
ACROSS ONTARIO CAN AND THE HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING. THIS CYCLONE IS
DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH IT, WHICH EXTENDS DOWN TOWARDS
NORTHERN MW/WI. LIGHT SNOW IS BEING REPORTED NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER
IN MN AND OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.P.. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD, BRINING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THERE WILL
BE ASSISTANCE FROM SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS, HOWEVER THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY (AROUND 850 - 700 MB).
ALTHOUGH SOUNDING PROFILES DEPICT A DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MODERATE
SNOW, THE WINDOW FOR SNOW WILL BE TOO BRIEF FOR ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER
THAN A COUPLE INCHES. WITH THAT SAID, TIMES OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE
SEEN DURING THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE AND COULD RESULT IN TIMES OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS. MOST OF
NORTHERN MI WILL SEE SNOW THIS MORNING, HOWEVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
THE BETTER CHANCES OF A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE NORTH OF M-32.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
HOWEVER THE MODERATE SNOW WILL HAVE EXITED BY MIDDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS SNOW MOVES IN, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH TIMES OF
MODERATE SNOW RESULTS IN SOME SPOTS SEEING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
MILE OR LESS. IMPACTS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS AS
WINDS WILL TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, A STRONG (~150KT) UPPER JET WILL ESTABLISH OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SAME TIME, RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE SE CONUS
WILL AID IN GENERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US.
THIS WILL SPREAD WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WHERE IT WILL MEET WITH AN EXISTING COLDER CAN AIRMASS (WHICH
SETTLED IN BEHIND THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH TODAY). A
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER MUCH OF THE US/CAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL ESTABLISH. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTING AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH AND IDEAL JET DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CAN WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL
LIKELY MOVE OVER EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER WEDNESDAY
AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS (UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PAC NW AND SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WITH CONTINUING THE
UPPER JET EAST). THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WARM AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REACH
MOST OF NORTHERN MI THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, CHANCES REMAIN IN FAVOR
OF PRECIPITATION BEING MOST RAIN WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
EASTERN UPPER THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES BEGINNING FARTHER NORTH AND
TRACKING MORE ZONAL (NOT AS AMPLIFIED OF A PATTERN) LEADS TO A
BETTER SET UP FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINING EITHER RAIN, SNOW, OR
A MIX OF EACH. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE TEMPERATUERS FALL BELOW FREEZING IN EASTERN UPPER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD STILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADS.
HOWEVER CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ESP AFTER 9Z FOR CIU/PLN AND SLOWLY SPREAD S
TOWARD APN/TVC THRU MORNING; THINK MBL COULD REMAIN QUIET TILL AFTER
18Z AS FRONT SORT OF FADES OUT ACROSS N. LOWER MI. FRONT TO LIFT
BACK NORTH THRU MBL TOWARD 6Z WED WITH RENEWED SN CHANCES. EXPECT
PRIMARILY SN BUT COULD TRY TO MIX WITH RA AFTER 18Z FOR TVC AND MBL.
ALSO SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ AT CIU, PLN, APN BETWEEN 12-18Z
BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT FOR AFTERNOON THERE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
PATCHY FOG THRU 9-12Z...BUT HAVE MORE CONCERNS FOR FOG AFTER 0Z WED.
PREVAILING MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR EXPECTED (IFR MORE LIKELY AT
CIU/PLN, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIFR AT TIMES THRU 15-18Z). WINDS
INCREASE FROM SW THRU 9Z, WITH LLWS FROM SW AROUND 25-35KTS, AND
MIXES DOWN TOWARD 12Z ALONG FRONT. WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN W AND TURN
VRB AS FRONT FADES OUT IN VC DURING THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345-
346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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