473
FXUS63 KAPX 250331
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY, MIXED RAIN/SNOW NORTH.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
HEAT DOME OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WITH
AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER AND MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. THIS STRONGER PACIFIC JET WILL
BRING SEVERAL FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WARMER AIR MAKES A PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES,
COMBINED WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
TO RESULT IN SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER EASTERN UPPER,
WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE BRIDGE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. RAIN DEVELOPS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH INCREASING PWATS, AND
FAVORABLE RRQ JET DYNAMICS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25".
THE PRECIPITATION MAY END AS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX,
ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.
A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND EVEN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POSSIBILITIES TO END THE WEEK AS A TRANSITORY THERMAL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN UPPER. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO MODIFY BY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EAST AND
MILDER AIR TO THE WEST BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TAF SITES FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE ISSUANCE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE CIU AND PLN
WITH POTENTIAL FG/BR DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.P./CIU WEDNESDAY EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...DJC
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