634
FXUS63 KAPX 251057
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TIMES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN UPPER EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULTING IN SLICK ROADS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
CURRENTLY SATELLITE DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH AND FEW SURFACE LOWS
MOVING ONSHORE NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA CAN, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN/DAMPEN THE 590 DAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. JUST TO
THE SOUTH, SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS SHOW AROUND A INCH OR MORE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INLAND AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. MOISTURE IS
FUNNELING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WHERE AROUND 0.5 INCH PWS ARE LEFT (VERIFIED BY 00Z RAOBS). THE
SYSTEMS MOVING OVER BC WILL CARRY LOWER PV SURFACES INLAND AND OVER
THE CAN ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL IT CONTINUE TO DAMPEN THE UPPER RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS (WHICH WILL FORCE THE WARMER TEMPS OVER THE
WESTERN US EASTWARD), IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE A POCKET OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DEEPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS, A
ZONAL UPPER JET AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AND EAST BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED BC FEATURES. SOUTH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
850 MB WILL VEER SOUTHWEST/WEST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ADVECT THE
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. COLDER CAN AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...
SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE
RIGHT AROUND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
DUE TO SOME JET DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT, PRECIPITATION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL AID IN TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER ND AROUND MID
MORNING TODAY, AND ADVECT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER JET. AS THE UPPER
JET WIGGLES AROUND TODAY (DUE TO FORCES MENTIONED ABOVE), DYNAMICAL
FORCING WILL NOT ALIGN WITH THE SURFACE LOW ANYMORE. IT WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO EASTERN UPPER TODAY, LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE, AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVER HEAD. WARMER 850 MB TEMPS MOVE OVERHEAD,
HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WELL.. RESULTING IN A
FAVORABLE VERTICAL PROFILE FOR SOME OF THOSE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
30 MPH LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA CAN. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL START
TO TREK DOWN THE MT FRONT RANGE AND DAKOTAS. AS THE ZONAL UPPER JET
FOCUSES MORE OVER MN AND LK SUPERIOR, GRADIENTS ABOVE AND BELOW
START TO TIGHTEN UNDER THE PRESSURE OF THE BEGINNINGS OF A
PATTERN TRANSITION. IDEAL JET DYNAMICS WILL GENERATE MORE THAN
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND THE U.P.. THE 0C 850
LINE WILL LINGER RIGHT AROUND THIS AREA AS WELL. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN UPPER WILL LIKELY HAVE A CHANCE TO DIP
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED WARM NOSE OVER HEAD, MIXED PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO REACH EASTERN UPPER
AROUND SUNRISE. TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BUT BY THE TIME THE HEAVIER PRECIP
MOVES OVER HEAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM AND MOST
WILL FALL AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIMES OF FREEZING RAIN, LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE UP TO A
HUNDREDTH OR SO CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT OVER EASTERN UPPER,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SPOTS OF SLICK ROADS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. BY MID TO LATE MORNING THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER. SOME SOUNDINGS DEPICT MORE IDEAL
VERTICAL PROFILES FOR MODERATE SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO WARM NOSE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MOSTLY SNOW AT THE SURFACE (MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES
AS THE COLUMN WILL BE SATURATED). THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SAG SOUTH OVER OF THE BRIDGE BRINING MOSTLY
RAIN CHANCES. SOME OF THE HIGHER HILLS COULD SEE TIMES OF SNOW
(DUE TO THE PROFILES MENTIONED ABOVE). PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
LATER THURSDAY EVENING, WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN MI. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER MI LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME FAVOR REMAINING MINIMAL DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE, HOWEVER SOME LOCAL SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENTS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH INTIAL HINTS
OF TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AS WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIR TRIES TO RETURN NORTHWARD. SOME VIRGA IS OCCURRING, AND AS
THE MORNING PROCEEDS SOME -SN OR -RA COULD MAKE IT TO SURFACE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IS AT CIU, IN THE FORM OF SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT, LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP, AND MVFR CIGS ARE PROGGED LATE AT PLN.
SE WINDS TODAY BECOME SW TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY APN/TVC/MBL. TVC/MBL HAVE LLWS FOR PART OF
TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LMZ345-346.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ
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