958
FXUS63 KAPX 251817
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN
UPPER EARLY THURSDAY; RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MAY CREATE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS
WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD OVER A RETREATING LOW LEVEL COLD
AIRMASS. A WEAK COOL FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH A
STRONGER FRONT POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A 150+ KT 200MB JET WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY MORNING, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
(PWATS 200% OF NORMAL) MAKING A PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. OVER EASTERN UPPER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HINT OF A MID LAYER WARM NOSE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. ALSO SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH COULD PUSH THINGS MORE TO SNOW WITH MOISTENING. A
PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER WITH SLICK ROADS.
EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE/SNOW MINOR.
SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE ON THURSDAY, RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. A VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITTING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS SAGINAW BAY.
FROPA WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR MOST
AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH FROPA, WITH SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BIT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STRIPS OUT. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, SLICK
ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THINGS QUIET DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA AS AN 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, MODIFYING BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLY MILD READINGS
BY SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
WAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, LIKELY
BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME LAKE RESPONSE
POSSIBLE. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
WITH A STILL DEEP RESERVOIR OF COLD AIR SITTING JUST NORTH OF AREA,
A MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES MAY (EMPHASIZE MAY) OCCUR IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STILL PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, SO
JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING UNDER SOME PASSING
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BAND OF MVFR CIGS STARTS TO ADVANCE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS HEADING
THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SEE A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH
THESE LOWER CIGS, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEHIND A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING AT KTVC AND KMBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ345-346.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MSB
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