738
FXUS63 KAPX 260658
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
258 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EARLY THIS
MORNING; RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/ EVENING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES THROUGH A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL JET, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER COULD START OFF A
BIT MESSY WITH THE 0C LINE AT 850MB DRAPED OVERHEAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF A
WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT, AND WHILE SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR MAY INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW, A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY ON. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT, BUT COULD STILL RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER, PRECIPITATION ONSET SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE RAIN, BUT THAT DOESN'T APPEAR TO LAST AS A COLD
FRONT STEADILY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HAVE
ALREADY TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, THOUGH THERE'S STILL SOME CONCERN THAT READINGS COULD
COME IN EVEN LOWER THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST. IF THIS COLDER
SOLUTION VERIFIES, A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. IN THIS
SCENARIO, A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WOULD NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION, WITH EASTERN UPPER LIKELY LEANING TOWARD
MAINLY SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENT. AS BETTER FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE MID TO LATE MORNING, PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BEFORE MAINLY FOCUSING SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, EXPECT RAIN
TO TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN OVER
TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. THERE REMAINS A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION, AND WHILE BETTER INSTABILITY HOLDS SOUTH, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER SNEAKING UP TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AIR FILTERS IN QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO STRIP
OUT, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT BETWEEN
THE MIX THIS MORNING AND THE REFREEZING POTENTIAL TONIGHT, SLICK
SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR SETTLES IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, WITH FRIDAY LIKELY
SEEING HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH, OR EVEN REMAIN BELOW, FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, WITH SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK MINOR, BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN WHILE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT
AT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE WEST. WITH COLDER AIR STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS THAT MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES COULD
COME INTO PLAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE-- MORE TO COME, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING A RETURN OF DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS LOOK TO SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON -- THE EXCEPTION MOST LIKELY
BEING FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR MBL. DROPS TO
IFR VSBYS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY EVEN RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST AREAS BY 06Z FRIDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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