873
FXUS63 KAPX 091101
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
701 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
-MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT DELIVERED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THE ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE HURON
SHORELINE. HOWEVER; DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BUILDING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUOUSLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE. WHILE
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT, THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REDEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CWA AND TIE INTO UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ONLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
M-72 CORRIDOR.
A 500MB RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND, CAUSING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE MIDWEST.
H8 TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S. ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ROBUST AND ACTIVE AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEEPENS DIRECTLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA'S WILL SEND WAVES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING): AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REDEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER. CURRENT DRY AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL PREVENT PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH OF
M-72, BUT WITH THE ORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND ISENTROPHICALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION WILL PROVIDE
THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES WITH A GENERAL QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT, LOW-RATIO SNOWFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS EAST OF I-75 AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ANY OBSERVED SNOWFALL WILL
MELT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY):
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH
CANADIAN CP AIR MASS INFLUENCE NORTH AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL AS HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY MONDAY. ANY REMAINING
SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WILL
LIKELY MELT OFF (OR AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF SNOW MELTING AS
EASTERN UPPER STILL HAS SNOW DEPTHS IN THE 20S).
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL (NEXT WEEK): FIRST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT MODERATE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES,
BUILDING INSTABILITY, AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE GULF...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY, CONVECTIVE
DRIVEN RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCLUDING PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT MOST SITES BESIDES NORTH OF THE BRIDGE (KCIU).
RA IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. AS A FROPA
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, SW WINDS WILL TURN W AND BECOME
10 TO 15KTS WITH G20KTS THROUGH 00Z. VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH
06Z TODAY (SKC AFTER 18Z FOR MOST TERMINALS). A ROUND OF RA/SN
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z, AS LINGERING MOISTURE
NEAR KCIU/KPLN WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR TIMES OF HZ/FG DURING
THIS TIME.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ345>349.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...ELD
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