582
FXUS63 KAPX 091810
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
210 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY; OTHERWISE,
MAINLY DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
- SPRING-LIKE WARMTH SUNDAY-TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY RENEWED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS) THAT MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT'S RAIN IS NOW SITUATED WELL DOWNSTREAM
OVER QUEBEC. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH SOUTHERN MI INTO THE PLAINS -- ESSENTIALLY A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR NEXT WAVE TO RIDE ALONG UPSTREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCLEMENT WEATHER BACK TO PARTS
OF NORTHERN MI LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
EXPANSIVE ~1032MB HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED SQUARELY OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SPRING-LIKE WARMTH
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED
SIGNALS FOR A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, WHICH MAY EXACERBATE FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MI.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOTS OF AFTERNOON SUN GIVES WAY
TO INCREASING/THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT. BY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ANTICIPATING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW TO SPREADING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
NORTHERN LOWER MI. BEST CHANCES FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
GENERALLY WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST, WHICH LATEST TRENDS STILL
SUGGEST TO BE NEAR THE M-32 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO NEAR THE M-55
CORRIDOR (ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOWER). SOME
LOCALIZED WET SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 2" ARE CONCEIVABLE IN THIS
AREA, ESPECIALLY ON COOLER/ELEVATED SURFACE. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACT ASIDE FROM PERHAPS SOME SLUSHY ROADS
IN SPOTS FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA,
PRIMARILY RAIN FOR CENTRAL LOWER. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES
NEAR AND NORTH OF M-32, PERHAPS ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, A
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION LIKELY, ALBEIT LIGHTER IN NATURE WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP
EXITS WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AND WHILE A ROGUE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MAY LINGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY TO BE A CHILLY ONE ACROSS NORTHERN MI AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVERHEAD. LOWS LIKELY IN THE
20S FOR MOST, BUT SOME TEENS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER/INTERIOR SPOTS. THIS PRIOR TO WHAT SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL
SATURDAY, FEATURING FULL SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FAR NORTH AND FROM THE THE UPPER
40S TO MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH TROUGHING BECOMING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LIKELY TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WITH PWS OF 1-1.25"+ AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S LOCALLY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALL WHILE
TEMPERATURES CRUISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE
(50S NORTH). WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY PROGGED TO TREK THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK
TIME FRAME, THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST
1-3" OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED CONVECTION.
COMBINED THIS NEW QPF WITH ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS AND RAPID
SNOW MELT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER), AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
EXPECTED TO RISE. WORTH NOTING SPC'S DAY 6 OUTLOOK WITH 15%
SEVERE CHANCES ALREADY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF SOUTHERN MI. LOTS OF
DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, SLACKENING BY
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME. SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTVC, KMBL, AND KAPN MAINLY.
ADDITIONALLY, BR/FG CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS, MOST
PERSISTENT FOR KPLN AND KCIU. MVFR AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO LIFR POSSIBLE. VSBYS
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 SM IN BR, LOWER IN FG AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JLD
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