905
FXUS63 KAPX 101725
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
125 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR.
-WARM WEATHER BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACCOMPANIED BY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. WATCHING
FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TODAY WITH ITS AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE AMERICAN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LEADING TO A WARMER PACIFIC AIR
MASS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE,
CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DRIVEN BY AN ESTABLISHED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY BISECTING MICHIGAN’S LOWER PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO DEPART
WEST THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN PUSHES
DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. WHILE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS SUBSIDENCE
SCOURS OUT MOISTURE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS TURN MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS 500MB TROUGHING CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHIFTS AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL INFLUENCE THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EMBEDDED WAVES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
DELIVERING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING CONCERNS FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO HIGH QPF PROBABILITIES COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE 60S CAUSING RAPID SNOWPACK MELTING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (TODAY): THE MAJORITY OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT, BUT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL NORTHERN LOWER THIS
MORNING. ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR, WITH AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL QUICKLY
START TO INFLUENCE THE CWA TODAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT MOISTURE
QUICKLY SCOURING ALOFT. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE ONE
OR TWO SHOWERS FAVORING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASING FLOODING POTENTIAL (NEXT WEEK): THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY REMAINS ON THE FORECASTED HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST STARTING SUNDAY, WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST QPF PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH
FAVOR THE STRAITS AND EASTERN UPPER ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION, BUT STRONG CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WILL DELIVER LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS PWATS REACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR APRIL,
PROFILES OF “LONG SKINNY CAPE,” AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS. SHOWERS
THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL HAVE LOW CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR, PRODUCING THE
MOST QPF FROM SINGLE CELLS/CLUSTERS RATHER THAN FROM TRAINING
STORMS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MULTIPLE INCHES OF TOTAL RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF A FEW DAYS IS LIKELY. WHILE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS
TYPICALLY NOT AN ISSUE FOR THE CWA, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT SNOWPACK REPORTS AND EXPECTED RAPID MELTING THIS
WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, TURNING CONDITIONS VFR BY 00Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS
FULLY INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS)
DECREASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND GRADUALLY
TURNING SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...NSC
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