434
FXUS63 KAPX 112048
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
448 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRING-LIKE WARMTH SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES). WATCHING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT APRIL 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY A RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROF WEST/RIDGE EAST CONFIGURATION ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW IS SPLIT AT TIMES, AND WHEN THIS
OCCURS FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPSTREAM FLOW THIS WEEK WILL
TRANSPORT AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE AREA, WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST DETAILS: FIRST WAVE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EJECTING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT, WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD OF A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS, FOCUSED MORE ON NORTHERN LOWER THAN EASTERN
UPPER.
A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL RISK ARRIVES MONDAY, BUT CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. INSTABILITY WITH
THIS NEXT WAVE IN THE VICINITY WILL BE BETTER THAN THE FIRST ONE SO
MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAY BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS, BUT IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDWEEK, WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF RAINFALL CHANCES
ON TAP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH,
IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN, WILL DO A NUMBER ON THE REMAINING SNOW
PACK IN THE AREA. THE WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND NEW RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER. THIS
IS WHERE AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY IN EFFECT FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, WITH A STEADILY INCREASING LOWER
CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TRANSITION TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THESE LOWER CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MIST WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK, WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MAY ALSO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KMBL. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THESE GUSTY WINDS, A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ON SUNDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-086>088-095-096.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...MSB
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