984
FXUS63 KAPX 121954
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE
SNOWPACK MELTOFF MAY AGITATE ALREADY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.
- RAIN AND THUNDER, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, TRENDING BACK
BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE DOMINATED BY A RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROF WEST/RIDGE EAST
CONFIGURATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW IS SPLIT AT
TIMES, THOUGH WHEN THIS OCCURS FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPSTREAM
FLOW THIS WEEK WILL TRANSPORT AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA, WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST DETAILS: IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND CONTINUES AT THIS
HOUR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD TROPICAL CONNECTION OF
MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA ARE AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
1.5" OR SO. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA, BUT AN MCV MOVING
OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
TONIGHT.
A BIGGER LULL IN THE SHOWER/STORM RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE MONDAY, MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKER STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, SIGNIFICANT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL HAVE STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE HAIL. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUSH A STALLED
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY SATURDAY WITH A RENEWED
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN THAT HAS JUST
FALLEN AS WELL AS WHAT IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK. THERE HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RIVER/STREAM LEVELS ARE
NOTABLY RISING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL
IN ACTIVITY MONDAY. MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM VFR TO LIFR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAKING CONDITIONS
VARIABLE. GENERAL TRENDS POINT TOWARDS PERHAPS BETTERING
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN LOWER TERMINALS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE OF SHOWERS TO PASS THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-35
KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING REMAINING SOMEWHAT BREEZY TO THE END OF THE PERIOD
(GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS). LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...NSC
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