461
FXUS63 KAPX 130638
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN
CONSISTING OF NUMEROUS RAIN CHANCES OVERLAPPED SATURATED SOILS
AND / OR MELTING SNOWPACK CONTINUES.
- A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH PEEKS OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 CLOSE TO SAGINAW BAY AND IN THE 40S ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER.
- ANOTHER SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE SETUP
REMAINING THE SAME- LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH EJECTING PACIFIC WAVES RIDING SOUTHERN
STREAM FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A DEEP
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM THE GULF, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN / CONVECTION TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
WEEK... WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO PROLONG THE ONGOING HYDRO / FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION.
DETAILS:
OUR FIRST BIG RAIN EVENT FROM THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO WIND
DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING, WITH DEEPER SATURATION SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST WITH ITS ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE / MID-LEVEL
MESOLOW. MOST EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM ROUGHLY CADILLAC TO ALPENA (UP TO AN ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED 0.50"
OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION). THIS CORRIDOR
WILL BE SUBJECT TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS (ON TOP OF THE
ALREADY ONGOING HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AS STREAMS UNDERGO THEIR HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSES. RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING, WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN BUILDING BY
LATER IN THE DAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADS TO TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS ACROSS THE AREA... WARM AND HUMID
(60S AND 70S) SOUTH AND 40S TO NEAR 50 IN EASTERN UPPER FOR MONDAY.
THE REPRIEVE WILL BE QUITE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND LOW
LEVEL JET (LLJ) INTRUSION DRAWS IN YET ANOTHER MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS
TO THE REGION. VIGOROUS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE
ACTIVITY. PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO MATERIALIZE
LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS
WILL BRING. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
LIKELY FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS JUNCTURE. IN THIS AREA, IT
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO OBSERVE AN ADDITIONAL 1.50 TO 3.00"+ OF RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ECHO TRAINING PERMITS REPEATED
DOWNPOURS WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSTITUTED OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.25. AS
SUCH, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA VERY CLOSELY... WE ALREADY HAVE
DAMS WITH OPEN GATES ON THE MANISTEE (TIPPY DAM) AND AU SABLE (MIO
DAM) RIVERS... AND MOST OF THESE RIVERS ARE SET TO APPROACH OR HAVE
ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MAXIMUM HEIGHTS AS IT IS. ADDING THIS RAIN ON
TOP OF WHAT IS ALREADY OCCURRING MAY CREATE SERIOUS ISSUES IN AREAS
THAT FLOOD EASILY DOWNSTREAM OF THESE DAMS IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
INEVITABLE EVENT THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RELEASE WATER. AS FAR AS
THE CHEBOYGAN BASIN GOES... ADDITIONAL RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
OUTBURST THERE TOO... IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, MOST OF THAT BASIN
WILL ENDURE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN... BUT THE HEADWATERS OF THE
STURGEON AND BLACK RIVER IN OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES MAY SEE
A GENERAL 0.75 TO 1.50"... ALL OF WHICH WILL QUICKLY FLOW INTO THE
WATER-LOGGED AREAS OF THE BASIN. CERTAINLY A LOT TO MONITOR IN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH EVEN MORE ON THE HORIZON.
ANOTHER WAVE IS SET TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THAT
STATIONARY FRONT, WHICH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE FROM THE QUAD CITIES , IL / IA AREA NORTH AND EAST INTO
MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS RESPONSE IS IN QUESTION...
BUT IN THE EVENT THAT THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH ENOUGH TO
PERMIT VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA (DRUM UP INSTABILITY), WE COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER OUTBURST
OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN AREA THAT DOESN'T
NEED IT. PERHAPS ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR WEDNESDAY,
BUT LONG TERM GUIDANCE WANTS TO CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ALONG THAT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER LLJ INTRUSION. SHOULD TREND DRY LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY... WITH MORE RAIN TO FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. WITH THIS, IT SHOULD
BE STATED THAT IT WILL BE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR US TO BE CONTENDING
WITH HYDRO / FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS LONGER.
THIS CERTAINLY COULD BE A LONG STRETCH FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING UNDER LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF MIST/FG. ATTENDANT AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE AND
SCATTER OUT. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCREASINGLY LOWER CIGS SET TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COMES TO AN END EARLY THIS
MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB
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