756
FXUS63 KAPX 132052
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
452 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING FLOODING MAY WORSEN WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS
TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-72.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEK BEFORE TURNING COLD LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS EMBEDDED WAVES
PROGRESS TROUGH THE MAIN FLOW. IN TURN, BOUNDARIES LAID ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL WAVE NORTH AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WORK THROUGH. A MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS OVERHEAD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY BRIEF RIDGING FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONG, LATE-
SEASON TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THEIR IMPACT ON ONGOING
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CURRENT CONFIDENCE BASED
ON LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS IS THAT STORMS CURRENT
FIRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN WILL MATURE AND WORK ACROSS THE
LAKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WORKING TO LIMIT HIGHER RAINFALL POTENTIAL
TO A DEGREE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS IS DUE TO LIMITED
TRANSPORT/SUPPORT FOR AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS THAT IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND TRACK ACROSS THE LAKE INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL
PROVIDE OUR WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM CHANCES, EXPECTATION IS THAT MANY
AREAS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 0.5-1" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS
OPPOSED TO MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS
WORKING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL POTENTIALLY BE AREAS SOUTH OF M-72, AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-55. OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1"+ WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2"+ SHOULD STRONG STORMS TRACK
ACROSS THAT AREA. REGARDLESS OF AMOUNTS, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT
WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA -- THE
MAGNITUDE/WIDESPREAD NATURE OF WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR THE
NORTHWOODS. SPECIFICALLY, THE AU SABLE RIVER NEAR RED OAK AND THE
MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN ARE FORECAST TO GO INTO MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE SHORTLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A FEW STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND LOW CHANCES FOR A TORNADO. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR HAZARDS
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AHEAD, ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH WILL LIKELY TANK TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEKEND BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
GENERAL TRENDS POINT TOWARDS BETTERING CONDITIONS (MVFR TO VFR)
ACROSS TERMINALS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z, THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK THROUGH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
(HIGHER WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS). CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MELTING SNOW CREATING AREAS OF BR AND FG
AND SHOWERS DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
THINKING IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THE PREVIOUS EVENING
WITH VARIABLE MVFR TO LIFR CONDTIONS POSSIBLE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...NSC
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