289
FXUS63 KAPX 141111
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
711 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING FLOODING MAY WORSEN WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGHEST RAINFALL EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-72.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEK BEFORE TURNING COLD LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE, SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE DOMINANT
PATTERN THAT LEADS TO NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES RIDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
MICHIGAN. A DIRECT GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASSES MOVING INTO MICHIGAN, AND THUS CONTINUES
A HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN BREAKDOWN WITH COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK... WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS AS WELL.
DETAILS:
ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK. WARM /
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM FRANKFORT TO
HARRISVILLE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) INTRUSION DRIVING
ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES AND SEVERE THREAT (HAIL AND WIND) WILL
STILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-32, THOUGH WITH THE
ONGOING HIGH WATER SITUATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF
NORTHERN LOWER, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FLOODING ISSUES THERE
AS WELL. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH INTO THE MORNING HOURS, GIVING A
TEMPORARY BREAK TO THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT SLIDING
JUST SOUTH OWING TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. ANOTHER WAVE RIDING THIS
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH MUCH MORE INSTABILITY TO
PLAY WITH, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN... BUT INITIAL THINKING FROM GUIDANCE IS THAT THIS WILL
BE SUPPRESSED DOWNSTATE FOR THE MOST PART... PERHAPS SCRAPING THE M-
55 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE AN ALL HAZARDS TYPE SETUP, AND
UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED WITH TIME BASED ON WHERE THE
WARM FRONT GOES. NONETHELESS... IT DOES APPEAR THE FARTHER NORTH ONE
GOES, THERE SHOULD BE A LESSER RISK OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL BARGE THROUGH THE REGION AND DELIVER
MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. STILL A BIT FUZZY ON THE DETAILS FOR THE
TIME BEING... BUT TIMING IS COMING INTO FOCUS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, OVERSPREADING MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY. ANOTHER REPRIEVE
LIKELY COMES FRIDAY BEFORE A LARGER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION, DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION... WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST OF COLDER IN EASTERN
UPPER AND MILD / 70S SOUTH COMING TO A CONCLUSION. HIGHS BY SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH SNOW CHANCES.
THE CHILL WILL MODERATE SOME INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING BACK INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
LIFR CIGS/VISBYS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING; SOME LINGERING RAIN
POSSIBLE. MAY TRY TO IMPROVE AROUND 15-18Z INTO 21Z WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MVFR TO EVEN VFR AT TIMES... WITH POTENTIAL FOR -RA AND
TSRA RETURNING AFTER 23/0Z THRU AT LEAST 9Z...ESP FOR TVC/MBL BUT
COULD REACH TO PLN AND APN. RETURN TO LIFR EXPECTED AFTER 0-3Z.
WINDS MAY START VRB OR NORTHERLY THIS MORNING, AND TURN MORE
EASTERLY OR VRB THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE SOME LLWS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESP
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THINK A SUBTLE FRONT MAY TRY TO DRIFT
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH COULD TRANSITION WINDS BACK TO NW-ISH
LATE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...FEF
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