548
FXUS63 KAPX 142002
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING FLOODING MAY WORSEN WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGHEST RAINFALL EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-72.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEK BEFORE TURNING COLD LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/JET MAX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PUNCH OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE AND BACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE SUBSTANTIAL
AIRMASS CHANGE SHOULD ALLOW THESE BOUNDARIES TO HANG ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY WORKING SOUTH. RIDGING LOOKS TO
SLIDE OVERHEAD FOR A BRIEF TIME FRIDAY BEFORE STRONG TROUGHING DIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE ANOTHER EXPECTED ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS THAT
STORMS WILL FIRE MUCH FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY WORK EAST INTO MICHIGAN -- SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID, EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONGEST STORMS AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. HIGHEST THREAT AREA FOR STRONG STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF M-72, AND
SPECIFICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. THIS CORRIDOR HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1"+ OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, RANGING FROM
0.25"-0.5" NEAR M-72 TO AROUND 0.10" ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRAY STORMS THAT
TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL
ONLY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN -- THE
MAGNITUDE AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF WHICH IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE AREA.
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CARRY THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72 BETWEEN 8 PM AND 1 AM
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING
ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
STORM CHANCES LOOK TO MOVE OUT A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER TONIGHT, PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AGAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE MUCH BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY WITH
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE ACROSS IMPACTED FLOOD
AREAS, ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY ONLY PROLONG IMPACTS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WATER LEVELS TRY TO COME DOWN. NOW FOR THE
EXCITING PART -- AFTER A STRETCH OF MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S, SNOW CHANCES MAKE A TRIUMPHANT RETURN ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
PLUNGE BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
GENERAL TRENDS POINT TOWARDS BETTERING CONDITIONS (MVFR TO HIGH
END IFR) ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MELTING SNOW CREATING AREAS OF BR AND FG
AND SHOWERS DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
THINKING IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD (HIGHER
WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY TVC AND MBL).
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...NSC
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