279
FXUS63 KAPX 151729
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN AND STORM CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...
- BREEZY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CONCERNS SATURDAY...
- SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
DISCUSSION
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
(A COUPLE EMBEDDED PV MAXIMA OVER CO...CENTRAL SD...AND JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR). RIDGE AXIS PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CONTINUED PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM TX THROUGH THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHERE PWATS EXCEED 1IN. FLOW IS A BIT SPLIT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW
TO THE OH VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ATTENDANT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW...AND A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN, WITH WARM ADVECTION INTO MANITOBA. COLD AIR
(SUBZERO AT 850MB) CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL CANADA,
ATTENDANT TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
TO HUDSON BAY. MICHIGAN STUCK IN THE BATTLEZONE...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EUP...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN MI WHERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES; THINGS HAVE LARGELY QUIETED DOWN ACROSS
NORTHERN MI AS OF 6Z...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SUBTLE DEFORMATION AREA OVER THE EASTERN UP. NEARLY TO COMPLETELY
SATURATED CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF SAID CONVECTION,
EVEN UP INTO THE UP...AND NOTING QUITE A BIT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
UPSTREAM FROM US, INTO THE YOOP/TIP OF THE MITT.
BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT IN THE WORKS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SIGNALS FOR TROUGHING TRYING (THOUGH NOT VERY
SUCCESSFULLY) TO SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT AT
TIMES IN THE COMING DAYS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME... AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SW US
LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS. RIDGING TO
BUILD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DRIVING A STRONG SURFACE LOW THROUGH
THE MIDWEST/EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS A BIT UNCLEAR ATTM BUT SIGNALS POINT TOWARD COLD ADVECTION
RETURNING AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD ENOUGH
THAT THE "S" WORD MAY REAR ITS HEAD AGAIN...WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW PICKING UP AGAIN INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT AT COLD AIR FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.
FORECAST DETAILS...
STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY
ACROSS IA TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MI THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN QUITE STABILIZED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER THIS EVENING'S "FUN"...AND WITH STABLE BUT
MURKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE YOOP AND WI LIKELY TO SEEP EASTWARD
BEHIND A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD KEEP THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR AREA (WHICH IS JUST AS WELL).
HOWEVER...IF BY SOME CHANCE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP STALLING FURTHER
NORTH OR LIFTS FURTHER NORTH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MANISTEE RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING, WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE
0.25IN OR SO OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING THERE.
OTHERWISE...THINK WE WILL NOT BE AS ABLE TO ACHIEVE INSTABILITY AS
WE HAVE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS/NIGHTS...AND MAY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE
TAMER, AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS BEING SAID...IF WE DO
MANAGE TO BREAK INTO ANY SUN...LOW LCLS COULD BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN
LATE, PARTICULARLY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AGAIN...AND ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE AXIS. BEST SHOT AT ANYTHING TRYING TO GET SPICY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72 AGAIN, AND PARTICULARLY
OVER TOWARD SAGINAW BAY, WHERE THINGS COULD BECOME UNCAPPED WITH
ENOUGH MIXING AND A NORTHWARD-ENOUGH SURGE OF THE WARM FRONT
TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HI-RES GUIDANCE WOULD
LIKE TO DEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.
CONCERNING RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED FORCING WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT COULD CERTAINLY REMAIN
FURTHER SOUTH, LEAVING US IN A MORE STRATIFORM AREA AGAIN...AND EVEN
STRATIFORM RAINS HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE PRODUCTIVE, NOTING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH COULD BE CLOSE TO 3KM AND SUPPORTIVE OF MORE
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THINK THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING BETTER ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR
AND SOUTH OF M-72 (WHERE IT IS ALSO NOT NEEDED)...BUT ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-55, WITH PROB GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL
LOWER INTO SAGINAW BAY FOR AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAIN (70+ PERCENT
CHANCE). NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A BIT BETTER DEFORMATION
BAND/TROWAL-ESQUE AXIS TONIGHT, GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS TIME AROUND...AND THIS COULD FAVOR A
SHOT AT A SWATH OF MORE PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS IDEA COMES TO
FRUITION...IT IS (UNFORTUNATELY) POSSIBLE IT MAY STRETCH FROM NW
LOWER UP INTO PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE MITT REGION, WHERE HI-RES PROBS
SUGGEST THERE IS A LOW-END SHOT (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AT SEEING MORE
THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN 24HRS THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE LATE THURSDAY INTO PART OF FRIDAY...OUR NEXT
SHOT OF RAIN/STORMS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. APPEARS WE
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER SLUG OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AS A MORE
DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
MORE HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS, WHICH COULD BE FOCUSED AT TIMES BY FGEN,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS FEATURE
WOULD BE QUICKER MOVING (IN THEORY). ATTM...LONG RANGE PROB GUIDANCE
DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP
(LIKELY RAIN) FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH ATTM
POTENTIAL IS LOW (15 PERCENT OR LESS), WHICH COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT PLAYS OUT...AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
SNOW POTENTIAL RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUITE DRAMATICALLY...850MB TEMPS
DROP BACK BELOW 0C, AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS -10C TO -15C BY SUNDAY,
WHICH WOULD CRANK UP OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AGAIN ON BRISK NORTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY,
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BACK TO OR BELOW
FREEZING...COULD LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATIONS. FORTUNATELY THIS MAY
ONLY BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR...OTHERWISE, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
COLD COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE OUR SOGGY HYDRO SITUATION UP HERE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
CURRENTLY LINGERING -RA/DZ AND PATCHY BR/FG ARE RESULTING IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND EVEN DEGRADE AS -RA MOVES IN FOR NORTHERN LOWER
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VCSH/SHRA NEAR KAPN AFTER
21Z. WIDESPREAD BR/FG WILL DROP MOST VISIBILITIES TO 1SM OR
LESS AFTER 06Z. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10KTS AND VRB, AND WILL TURN NW
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TO
MVFR/IFR HOWEVER LINGERING BR AND OVC CIGS BELOW 1 KFT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR IFR IMPACTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...ELD
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