678
FXUS63 KAPX 182322
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
722 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING AND HISTORICALLY HIGH FLOWS CONTINUE WITHIN THE VICINITY
OF OUR RIVER SYSTEMS WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
- DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGING PUSHES INTO
WESTERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS BACK TO WESTERN AREAS
(AND HOPEFULLY SOME PRECIPITATION), WITH INDUCED HIGHER HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUILDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL, A MUCH DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN - AFTER SOME LIGHTER LAKE INFLUENCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S. OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE 850MB COLD POOL SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TOWARD 7K TONIGHT BUT MOISTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED. EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS TONIGHT WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE (MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES). A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BIT MORE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE - LIKELY RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S IN MOST AREAS (LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST
AREAS) WITH GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. NOT
A VERY SPRINGLIKE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA, A
COLD NIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S AND EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE. ONE MORE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH GRADUALLY PULLING EAST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT (20S TO LOWER 30S).
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AT THE SAME TIME, A DEEP
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
COLDER AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND -SHSN WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS START TO
DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT PLN/CIU.
W/WNW WINDS WILL BE ON THE BRISK SIDE THIS EVENING, BECOMING NW
AND BREEZY AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
ANOMALOUS AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH SNOWMELT OVER
THE LAST WEEK OR TWO (AMONGST OTHER LONGER SCALE HYDROLOGIC AND
METEOROLOGIC REASONS) HAS RESULTED IN HISTORIC RIVER, SMALL STREAM,
AND AREAL FLOODING IN ADDITION TO A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF ROAD
WASHOUTS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME AREAS ARE RELAXING, AT LEAST
TO SOME EXTENT, WITH THE LATEST HYDROGRAPHS AND NATIONAL WATER MODEL
INUNDATION EXTENT SHOWING THE PIGEON RIVER AND STURGEON RIVER WITH
DECREASING WATER LEVELS AND LESS INUNDATION NOW COMPARED TO THE LAST
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE STURGEON RIVER FROM
WOLVERINE UP TOWARDS INDIAN RIVER, THERE IS LIKELY REMAINING
INUNDATION AND PONDING OF WATER BASED ON HOW SATURATED THE SOILS
ARE. ON THE OTHER HAND, MUCH OF THE REST OF OUR MAJOR RIVER SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH WATER LEVELS AND FLOW WITH MANY
STREAMS CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT FLOW (CFS) EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN A
1 IN 50 YEAR VALUE. ANOTHER MONUMENTAL RIVER FLOOD IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE MANISTEE RIVER, WHICH CONTINUES WITH MAJOR FLOODING
(CURRENTLY 18.1 FT VS 16.9 FT WHICH IS THE PREVIOUS THE RECORD AT
GAUGE LOCATION SHRM4 (SHERMAN, MI)). OTHER LOCATIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FLOODING INCLUDE THE THUNDER BAY RIVER, THE
BLACK RIVER, AND THE RIFLE RIVER, TO NAME A FEW. ADDITIONALLY,
ELEVATED LAKE LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN FLOODING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT.
THE CHEBOYGAN DAM IS STILL BEING MONITORED AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH
A COUPLE OF OTHER DAMS UPSTREAM, ALTHOUGH GENERALLY POSITIVE NEWS
HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THIS TIME. THE BELLAIRE DAM CONTINUES WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT OF PRECAUTION AT THIS TIME.
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY PRODUCED A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH
LOCALIZED ONE INCH AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE MANISTEE WATERSHED. A
GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEK (SOME VARIATION
CERTAINLY DEPENDING ON THE RIVER SYSTEM), AS NOTED BY THE HEFS 10
DAY RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JZ
HYDROLOGY...JLD/JK
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