876
FXUS63 KAPX 191024
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
624 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FLOWS AND SOME FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS AREA RIVERS, LAKES.
- RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING
IN IMPROVEMENT TO ONGOING FLOODING.
- ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
DEEP UPPER TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL BE OUR FEATURE OF NOTE
FOR TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS WELL. TROUGH AXIS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND STEEPENING LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MINOR INSTABILITY TODAY, AIDING
IN SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL HELP AS WELL. GIVEN THIS PATTERN, CONCEPTUALLY,
CELLULAR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH AID FROM THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER REGION OF ENHANCEMENT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF M-32 GIVEN BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE
BEST AXIS OF NON ZERO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ONE WOULD THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED DROPS IN VISIBILITY, PERHAPS SOME
GRAUPEL AS WELL. COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPS TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS, THE MAIN STORY BEING THE SEASONABLY
COLD LOWS. EXPECT LOW 20S MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ACROSS OUR
NOTORIOUSLY COLDER SPOTS.
THAT TROUGHING COMPLEX PULLS AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. QUICK
MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CANADA AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL TRY TO CLIP EASTERN UPPER FOR A SHOWER
OR TWO, BUT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. EITHER WAY, THIS IS NOT A BIG DEAL
AND DOES NOT ADD ANY MORE HYDROLOGIC STRESS ON THE AREA, ON THE
CONTRARY IN FACT WITH SUBSIDING WATER LEVELS ACROSS OUR RIVER
SYSTEMS.
A WELCOMED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE, ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A
DEEP TROUGH MADE UP OF MANY PIECES OF ENERGY DIVES INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, DRIVING A MOIST (DEWPOINTS >50F AND
PWATS 150-200% OF NORMAL) AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
INSTABILITY A LITTLE IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY RAINS WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SOMETIME
DURING THE LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. CURRENT
PROBS FROM LREF AND NBM GENERALLY SUGGEST A LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL
(~10 TO 50%) FOR 0.5" OR MORE OF RAIN. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SUBTLETIES OF THIS SETUP MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
PASSING MAINLY HIGHER BASED CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY. SUPPOSE ANY BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER MAY TEMPORARILY DROP VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STEADILY DECREASING IN
SPEED TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
CURRENT FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, WITH
PLENTY STILL EXHIBITING CFS VALUES AT A 2% ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITY (OR 50 YEAR AVERAGE RETURN INTERVAL). COMBINING THIS
WITH SOME OF OUR FLOOD INUNDATION MAPPING TOOLS SUGGEST INUNDATION
STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST LOWER MI
(FOR EXAMPLE PORTIONS OF CHEBOYGAN, ALPENA, AND WEXFORD COUNTIES).
SOME IMPROVEMENT NOTED ACROSS OTHER LOCALES THOUGH STANDING WATER
LIKELY REMAINS IN POOR DRAINAGE PLACES AND AREAS OF SATURATED SOILS.
THUS, AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING, ALTHOUGH RIVER
LEVELS AND FLOWS ARE DROPPING TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK AS A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED, SO WE SHOULD EXPECT A
SLOW BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ONGOING FLOODING AND
SUBSEQUENT RIVER LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN, AS INDICATED BY
THE LATEST HEFS RIVER FLOOD GUIDANCE. FLOODING WILL LINGER LONGER
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND ANY LAKES THAT HAVE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS THAT ARE IMPINGING ON HOUSES. WORTH NOTING THAT AN ACTIVE
PERIOD IS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER MOVING FORWARD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
HYDROLOGY...JLD/JK
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