518
FXUS63 KAPX 191811
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
211 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FLOWS AND SOME FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS AREA RIVERS, LAKES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK, RESULTING
IN IMPROVEMENT TO ONGOING FLOODING.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
DEEP, LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850MB THERMAL TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST. UPPER TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW WILL BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING
TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THAT PACIFIC NW TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS. OTHERWISE, A VERY COLD NIGHT (BY LATER APRIL STANDARDS)
WITH LOWS IN UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY CLIP PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, QUIET CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AS HIGHER HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH
EASTWARD.
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES (50S AND 60S). THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY
LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AND PUSHES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
MUCH MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES (PWATS NEARLY 150%+ OF
NORMAL), INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROPA MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO
15KTS WITH G15 TO 25KTS THROUGH 02Z. SKIES GENERALLY BKN040 WITH
ISO -SHSN MOVING OVER SOME TERMINALS. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
WITH G15KTS STARTING UP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR SOME
TERMINALS (KTVC/KPLN/KMBL).
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
CURRENT FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, WITH
PLENTY STILL EXHIBITING CFS VALUES AT A 2% ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITY (OR 50 YEAR AVERAGE RETURN INTERVAL). COMBINING THIS
WITH SOME OF OUR FLOOD INUNDATION MAPPING TOOLS SUGGEST INUNDATION
STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST LOWER MI
(FOR EXAMPLE PORTIONS OF CHEBOYGAN, ALPENA, AND WEXFORD COUNTIES).
SOME IMPROVEMENT NOTED ACROSS OTHER LOCALES THOUGH STANDING WATER
LIKELY REMAINS IN POOR DRAINAGE PLACES AND AREAS OF SATURATED SOILS.
THUS, AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING, ALTHOUGH RIVER
LEVELS AND FLOWS ARE DROPPING TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK AS A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED, SO WE SHOULD EXPECT A
SLOW BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ONGOING FLOODING AND
SUBSEQUENT RIVER LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN, AS INDICATED BY
THE LATEST HEFS RIVER FLOOD GUIDANCE. FLOODING WILL LINGER LONGER
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND ANY LAKES THAT HAVE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS THAT ARE IMPINGING ON HOUSES. WORTH NOTING THAT AN ACTIVE
PERIOD IS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER MOVING FORWARD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...ELD
HYDROLOGY...JLD
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