140
FXUS63 KAPX 202332
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
732 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS AREA RIVERS, LAKES.
- DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK, RESULTING IN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO ONGOING LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES,
REPLACED BY HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THINGS BECOME
MORE ACTIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
INTO MICHIGAN.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT, KEEPING ANY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. WARMER AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK
RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR
UPWARD PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ON
THURSDAY, COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORES AND OVER EASTERN UPPER. A
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS, WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TOWARD 60 DEGF SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE (A LITTLE ON
THE HUMID SIDE FOR APRIL). SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY BY
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
>0.50" OF RAIN PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO
WATCH GIVEN THE RECENT FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS IN SOME AREAS.
A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, AS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN TROUGHS TO OUR EAST AND TO OUR
WEST. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE POSSIBLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SO
ALTHOUGH THINGS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHERWISE RIGHT NOW, ANY
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD RESULT IN
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. DRY AIR
IN LOW LEVELS THOUGH, SO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT, LLWS IS FORECAST AT CIU/APN/MBL TONIGHT AND/OR
TUESDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
DESPITE WATER LEVELS AND FLOWS CONTINUING TO DECREASE, THE SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS NORTHERN MI KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS LOCALIZED
LOW LYING AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED RIVER OR LAKE
FLOODING. PORTIONS OF INDIAN RIVER AND THE LITTLE STURGEON RIVER IN
INDIAN RIVER CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT AREAL FLOODING VIA NWS
METEOROLOGISTS. SIMILARLY, NATIONAL WATER MODEL FLOOD INUNDATION
MAPPING SERVICES SUGGEST INUNDATED HOUSES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER AND
BLACK LAKE, AND LIKELY ACROSS WOLVERINE AS WELL (AGAIN, SOME OF THIS
IS THE FACT THAT THE WATER IS HAVING A POOR TIME DRAINING FROM THESE
LOCATIONS). NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEK. HEFS GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH CURRENT, EXTRAPOLATED
HYDROGRAPHS, SHOW ALL MAJOR RIVER SYSTEMS WITH A DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH PERHAPS ONLY PORTIONS OF THE MANISTEE RIVER
LINGERING WITH MINOR FLOODING. NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SENSITIVE AREAS, ALTHOUGH ONE
WOULD ASSUME SOME DRYING OF THE SOILS WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ348-
349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JZ
HYDROLOGY...JLD
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