282
FXUS63 KAPX 210746
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
132 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO AREAS
EXPERIENCING LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR RIVERS, LAKES, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
- MILD TO WARM LATE WEEK WITH RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- DRIER AND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MI TODAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHORT WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE MAIN LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE LIKELY BEING
TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILTY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS, ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING HALF AN EYE ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
M-55 IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME.
HEIGHTS REALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN. IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING CRASHING INTO THE WEST COAST AND
MOVING EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES, RIDGING
SETTLES RIGHT OVER TOP OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, WITH 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, 60S CLOSER
TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AND NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. A FEW PIECES OF
GUIDANCE WANT TO SPIT OUT A SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
PROGGED UPPER PATTERN AND THERMAL STRUCTURE SHOULD REALLY MITIGATE
THAT POTENTIAL. WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE DURING THIS DRY
STRETCH THROUGH MID WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOME RIVERS, LAKES, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS (SOME LAKES WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESPOND).
DEEP TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO JOG NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOME DEGREE.
CONSEQUENTLY, DOMINANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED
TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE
BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE (POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY
SHORT WAVE ENERGY) WILL BE MOISTURE RICH, WITH PW ~200% OF NORMAL OR
GREATER. STEADIEST PRECIP FALLS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 0.50" OF RAIN OR MORE FOR SOME. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
A LOW TO MEDIUM-ISH (~20 TO 50%) CHANCE FOR >0.50" OF RAIN DURING
THIS TIME, WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH NBM PROBS THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL WOULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS DESPITE AT LEAST SOME QUESTIONS IN REGARD TO
INSTABILITY QUALITY (ALTHOUGH THE EPS, GEPS, AND THEIR PARENT MODELS
SUGGEST AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS TO WORK WITH). THUS, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
MANIFESTS, WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WANES BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A
CONVOLUTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. LARGE, OMNIPOTENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE SPINNING AWAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LARGELY IN ADJACENT SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH
ANOTHER TROUGHING COMPLEX WAY TO OUR EAST. PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH
SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND OFF THE CANADIAN COAST LOCK THIS UPPER LOW IN
PLACE (PLUS OR MINUS) BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN AND LEAVING NORTHERN
MI IN LIMBO TO SOME EXTENT. AS OF NOW, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS MOVING FORWARD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALBEIT SOME
LAKES ARE STILL ELEVATED AND CAUSING ISSUES. MULLET LAKE LEVELED OUT
AROUND 596.1 FT, A FULL 2 FT ABOVE THE RECORD HEIGHTS, AND THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS AND FOOTAGE OF HOMES STILL FLOODED ALONG BLACK
LAKE. THUS, LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR SOME RIVERS, LAKES, AND POOR
DRAINAGES CONTINUE. THAT BEING SAID, THE CURRENT FLOW (ANALYZED BY
THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIGEON, STURGEON,
THUNDER BAY, PORTIONS OF THE AU SABLE, AND BOARDMAN RIVERS ARE AT AN
ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE OF BETWEEN 20-50% (IN OTHER WORDS, AN ARI FLOW
RATE OF 2-5 YEARS, WHICH IS MINOR). THIS IS TRUE FOR RIVERS ACROSS
THE TITTABAWASSEE/TOBACCO RIVER BASIN AS WELL. CONVERSELY,
FLOWS ACROSS THE MANISTEE RIVER, CHEBOYGAN RIVER, BLACK RIVER,
AND PORTIONS OF THE MUSKEGON RIVER REMAIN AT A ~2% ANNUAL
EXCEEDANCE (FLOW RATE ARI OF 50 YEARS, MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT).
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE HYDROGRAPHS ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL, WITH
A STEADY DECREASE FOR MOST. OUR FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS
THE LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHER FLOWS, MORE OR LESS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING DOES CONTINUE NEAR SOME OF THESE RIVERS, LAKES, AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT RAIN MAKER WILL MOVE
IN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR MOST, WITH MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN MI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW TO MEDIUM-ISH
(~20 TO 50%) CHANCE FOR >0.50" THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY MANIFESTS. HEFS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
SUBTLE RIVER RISES/RESPONSES DUE TO THIS RAINFALL, BUT NOTHING
ALARMING AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, THE SENSITIVE, POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WITH LINGERING WATER/FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED, ESPECIALLY WITH SOIL MOISTURE STILL ~45-60% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. DRY AIR
IN LOW LEVELS THOUGH, SO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT, LLWS IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND/OR
TUESDAY MORNING.
X
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ348-
349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
HYDROLOGY...JLD
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