589
FXUS63 KAPX 211822
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
222 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE AND MILD TO WARM WEATHER INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS FLOOD-IMPACTED AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
- NEXT MAIN RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN-
FREE WEATHER MOVING IN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL PASS
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AS EXPANSIVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO FOLD ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SAID RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY
WITH TIME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING DIG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS WORK WEEK.
THIS CHANGES AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING A CYCLONE WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS THE STATE IN THE
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOK TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS:
RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND TO OUR NORTH
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S FOR
PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER READINGS
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE LAKESHORES AND NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. THESE DRY
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE VERY MUCH WELCOMED BY AREAS STILL
RECOVERING FROM RECENT FLOODING. IMPROVEMENT ACROSS IMPACTED AREAS
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS/
BASINS MAY BE SLOWER TO RESPOND THAN OTHERS.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THURSDAY, ATTENTION
LARGELY TURNS TO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS OUR NEXT MAIN
ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES RETURNS AS THE FRONT SWINGS IN. AS MENTIONED
BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER, HIGH-QUALITY MOISTURE LOOKS TO POSITION
ITSELF AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK -- PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1"
WOULD ENCROACH ON CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX VALUES FOR THE END OF APRIL.
MEAGER INSTABILITY APPEARS IT SHOULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
BUT THE MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL
WITH ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK AT
STAY IN THE BALLPARK OF 0.5" AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR
SOME AREAS TO SEE 1"+ OF RAINFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD HEAVIER
RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS TRACK OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. FOLLOWING THIS
ROUND OF RAIN, A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY INFLUENCED
(TERRAIN AND LAKE BREEZE AFTER 20Z) WITH A OCCASIONAL G15KTS AT
A SITE OR TWO. SKIES GENERALLY SKC WITH TIMES OF FEW AOA 10
KFT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALBEIT SOME
LAKES ARE STILL ELEVATED AND CAUSING ISSUES. MULLET LAKE LEVELED OUT
AROUND 596.1 FT, A FULL 2 FT ABOVE THE RECORD HEIGHTS, AND THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS AND FOOTAGE OF HOMES STILL FLOODED ALONG BLACK
LAKE. THUS, LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR SOME RIVERS, LAKES, AND POOR
DRAINAGES CONTINUE. THAT BEING SAID, THE CURRENT FLOW (ANALYZED BY
THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIGEON, STURGEON,
THUNDER BAY, PORTIONS OF THE AU SABLE, AND BOARDMAN RIVERS ARE AT AN
ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE OF BETWEEN 20-50% (IN OTHER WORDS, AN ARI FLOW
RATE OF 2-5 YEARS, WHICH IS MINOR). THIS IS TRUE FOR RIVERS ACROSS
THE TITTABAWASSEE/TOBACCO RIVER BASIN AS WELL. CONVERSELY,
FLOWS ACROSS THE MANISTEE RIVER, CHEBOYGAN RIVER, BLACK RIVER,
AND PORTIONS OF THE MUSKEGON RIVER REMAIN AT A ~2% ANNUAL
EXCEEDANCE (FLOW RATE ARI OF 50 YEARS, MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT).
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE HYDROGRAPHS ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL, WITH
A STEADY DECREASE FOR MOST. OUR FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS
THE LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHER FLOWS, MORE OR LESS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING DOES CONTINUE NEAR SOME OF THESE RIVERS, LAKES, AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT RAIN MAKER WILL MOVE
IN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR MOST, WITH MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN MI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW TO MEDIUM-ISH
(~20 TO 50%) CHANCE FOR >0.50" THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY MANIFESTS. HEFS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
SUBTLE RIVER RISES/RESPONSES DUE TO THIS RAINFALL, BUT NOTHING
ALARMING AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, THE SENSITIVE, POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WITH LINGERING WATER/FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED, ESPECIALLY WITH SOIL MOISTURE STILL ~45-60% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...ELD
HYDROLOGY...JLD
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