450
FXUS63 KAPX 220651
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1226 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR
RIVERS, LAKES, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- MILD TO WARM LATE WEEK WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- DRIER AND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, IMPINGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS
NORTHERN MI BY THIS EVENING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS N
MI AS WELL, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZE AND MARINE
INFLUENCE CLOSER TO THE COASTS. SUBTLE EAST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LIKELY RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLER HIGH
TEMPS, BUT STILL A VERY MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON ANTICIPATED.
BY THURSDAY, RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT VALUES TO SOAR WELL INTO
THE 70S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST WILL
BE IF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ABLE TO FIRE OFF WITHIN A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SUPPOSE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MIGHT TRY TO OVERCOME THIS BUT AS OF
NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SUPPRESSION OF MOST ACTIVITY. WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK, RESULTING IN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO THE LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOME RIVERS, LAKES, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS (LAKES WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO RESPOND WHICH WE
ARE OBSERVING AND CONCEPTUALLY MAKES SENSE).
LARGE UPPER LOW PLUNGES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MID THIS WEEK,
MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL SPIN UP A POTENT SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND S CANADA, WITH ATTENDANT
BOUNDARY AND RICH LAYER MOISTURE (PWS >1.0", >200% OF NORMAL) POISED
TO IMPACT NORTHERN MI FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A STEADY SWATH
OF RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER LATER FRIDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ~0.50" OF RAIN. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL
WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
FORCED OR ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE PROGGED SHORT WAVE ON THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW.
PARENT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL SPIN AWAY THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. MEANWHILE, LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SWING ON THROUGH EARLY
ON SATURDAY, ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT BY THE MORNING HOURS
FOR MOST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AND THEN WE WATCH THE
NEXT RAIN MAKER SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A VIGOROUS TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALBEIT
LAKES ARE STILL ELEVATED AND CAUSING ISSUES. MULLET LAKE LEVELED
OUT AROUND 596.1 FT, CURRENT LEVEL ~596.05 FT, AND WILL TAKE
ALONG TIME TO FULLY GO BACK TO NORMAL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
REPORTS AND FOOTAGE OF FLOODED HOMES ALONG BLACK LAKE, WITH ICE
DAMAGE AS WELL. THUS, LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR SOME RIVERS,
LAKES, AND POOR DRAINAGES CONTINUES. HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR
SHERMAN NOW IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT RAIN MAKER WILL MOVE
IN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR MOST, WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MI. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A LOW TO MEDIUM-ISH (~20 TO 50%) CHANCE FOR >0.50" THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HEFS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SUBTLE RIVER
RISES/RESPONSES DUE TO THIS RAINFALL, BUT NOTHING ALARMING AT THIS
TIME. THAT BEING SAID, THE SENSITIVE, POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH
LINGERING WATER/FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SOIL MOISTURE STILL ~40-60% (ALTHOUGH SLOWLY TRYING TO DRY) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. LARGELY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF
TONIGHT CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH SUB-10KT NORTHERLY FLOW
BUILDING LATE IN THE MORNING. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE ONCE
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
HYDROLOGY...JLD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page