560
FXUS63 KAPX 221802
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
202 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S.
-RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
-MAINLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS AROUND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CONTINUED
THUNDER POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS FORECASTING:
500MB RIDGING REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ITS AXIS PROGRESSING WESTWARD TODAY. H8 TEMPERATURES ADVECTING
FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS BENEFICIALLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, AS
CONTINUED LOCALIZED FLOODING AND HIGH WATER LEVELS RECEDE.
AT THE SAME TIME, MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND EXTEND A FRONT WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY WAVES
EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE WILL
RETURN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE LOCALIZED DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT QUICKLY SCOURS OUT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, KEEPING
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES
SOMEWHAT ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE MIDWEST.
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DRIVEN BY
EMBEDDED ENERGY WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES... THE MIDLEVEL INFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL CONTINUE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION OF 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TEENS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS AND ADIABATIC
HEATING PROCESSES WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED
ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE CWA, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE
VERY BENEFICIAL FOR WATERSHEDS TO RECOVER FROM LAST WEEK'S HISTORIC
FLOODING.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT... THE
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
PROFILES TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAINFALL SUCH AS NARROW CAPE PROFILES,
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS, AND PWATS APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA.
DYNAMIC’S OF THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT IDEAL AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS WAVE
BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE ATTACHED LOW LEE OF THE ROCKIES, PLACING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ZONE WHERE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN SOUTH.
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 0.30”-0.50”, BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE DRIVEN RAINFALL OVER AN INCH REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
PERIODIC CHANCES OF ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK... THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDING PATTERN BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. WHILE COOLER COMPARED TO THIS
WEEK, NEXT WEEK HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER. ONLY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IS THE TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING WITH TIME. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES REMAIN BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH, BUT GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS OF THIS SYSTEM AND REMAINING CUT OFF FROM SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION, PRECIPITATION COULD BE EVEN LESS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT, INCREASING AROUND 06Z WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD (HIGHEST ACROSS CIU AND PLN).
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALBEIT
LAKES ARE STILL ELEVATED AND CAUSING ISSUES. MULLET LAKE LEVELED
OUT AROUND 596.1 FT, CURRENT LEVEL ~596.05 FT, AND WILL TAKE
ALONG TIME TO FULLY GO BACK TO NORMAL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
REPORTS AND FOOTAGE OF FLOODED HOMES ALONG BLACK LAKE, WITH ICE
DAMAGE AS WELL. THUS, LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR SOME RIVERS,
LAKES, AND POOR DRAINAGES CONTINUES. HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR
SHERMAN NOW IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT RAIN MAKER WILL MOVE
IN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR MOST, WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MI. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A LOW TO MEDIUM-ISH (~20 TO 50%) CHANCE FOR >0.50" THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HEFS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SUBTLE RIVER
RISES/RESPONSES DUE TO THIS RAINFALL, BUT NOTHING ALARMING AT THIS
TIME. THAT BEING SAID, THE SENSITIVE, POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH
LINGERING WATER/FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SOIL MOISTURE STILL ~40-60% (ALTHOUGH SLOWLY TRYING TO DRY) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...NSC
HYDROLOGY...JLD
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