263
FXUS63 KAPX 231812
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
212 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
0.5-1 INCH OR MORE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- RAIN-FREE WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS IN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CENTER ITSELF SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING, BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS
BEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS DISPLACED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. A MORE
COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL TRANSPIRE UPSTREAM INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE END PRODUCT WILL BE AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED
MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN/FAR NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL SWING UP THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO TONIGHT, LEADING
TO A VERTICALLY- STACKED SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH TIME
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RELATIVELY DIFFUSE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN TO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS IN BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST LIES ON RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER RETURNING TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WORKING EAST AND
WEAKENING WITH TIME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD ON, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, TO POTENTIALLY BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS
THE AREA. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH WOULD BE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX VALUES FOR THE END OF APRIL, AND THIS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS --
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1 INCH OR MORE RAINFALL
BY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-75.
WHILE IMPROVEMENT IN FLOOD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD ONLY
EXACERBATE FLOOD IMPACTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. WEAK/CALM WINDS
WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING, POTENTIALLY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY INTERIOR
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES COME BACK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S. LOOKING AHEAD, RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WORK BACK IN BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS (20-40 PERCENT) WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING MBL, TVC, AND PLN. ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS ALSO LOOK TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ARRIVAL OF DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED LATER IN THE MORNING AND
MAY BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN (INCLUDING MBL)
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND INCREASE INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
BECOMING 8-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN
LOWER.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...DJC/77
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