170
FXUS63 KAPX 240433
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
0.5-1 INCH OR MORE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- RAIN-FREE WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS IN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CENTER ITSELF SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING, BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AS BEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS DISPLACED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.
A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL TRANSPIRE UPSTREAM INTO
FRIDAY. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE END PRODUCT WILL BE AN
EXPANSIVE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN/FAR
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING UP THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
INTO TONIGHT, LEADING TO A VERTICALLY- STACKED SYSTEM THAT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH TIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RELATIVELY
DIFFUSE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS IN BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST LIES ON RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER RETURNING TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WORKING EAST AND
WEAKENING WITH TIME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD ON, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, TO POTENTIALLY BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS
THE AREA. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH WOULD BE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX VALUES FOR THE END OF APRIL, AND THIS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS --
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1 INCH OR MORE RAINFALL
BY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-75.
WHILE IMPROVEMENT IN FLOOD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD ONLY
EXACERBATE FLOOD IMPACTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. WEAK/CALM WINDS
WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING, POTENTIALLY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY INTERIOR
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES COME BACK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S. LOOKING AHEAD, RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WORK BACK IN BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA DRUMS UP PERSISTENT ESE TO SE FLOW INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING, BUT
SHOULD HOLD TO ABOUT 7,000FT INTO DAYBREAK. SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHRA NEAR TVC AND MBL INTO DAYBREAK, BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE
TO DEFINITIVELY PLACE TSRA INTO THE FORECAST. RA AND SHRA
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
TEMPORARY INCREASES IN WIND AND DECREASES IN CIGS AND VSBYS.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT INTO FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG WITH BR / FG POTENTIAL ACCOMPANYING
SUB 1,000FT CIGS. AS SUCH, WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO EVEN LIFR
PREVAILING AT MOST SITED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ342.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...DJC / WFO MQT
AVIATION...HAD
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